{"id": "1206813331051872259", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-09-02T15:00:00Z", "msg": "192\nWTPA44 PHFO 021449\nTCDCP4\n \nHurricane Lowell Discussion Number  25\nNWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP122026\nIssued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n500 AM HST Wed Sep 02 2026\n \nThe rapid intensification of Lowell has continued early this \nmorning. The compact hurricane has a circular, 15 n-mi-wide eye \nsurrounded by a symmetric ring of deep convection with cloud tops as \ncold as -70 to -80 deg C. This impressive structure has led to an \nincrease in the satellite intensity estimates, with JTWC and HFO \nrecently providing T6.5/127 kt Dvorak estimates. Meanwhile, the \nlatest AiDT and D-MINT objective estimates from CIMSS have climbed \nabove 130 kt. Since the satellite presentation continues to improve \nand the eye of Lowell has warmed during the past couple of hours, \nthe initial intensity is raised to 135 kt.\n \nLowell will move within conducive large-scale environmental and\noceanic conditions for the next several days. With no signs yet of\nthe commencement of an eyewall replacement cycle (ERC), some\nadditional near-term strengthening is forecast, and Lowell could\nreach category 5 intensity later today or tonight. Over the next\nseveral days, the intensity of the hurricane will be modulated by\ninternal dynamic processes like ERCs. The NHC intensity forecast is\nsimilar to the previous one and remains on the high side of the\nlatest guidance. There is high confidence that Lowell will remain a\nmajor hurricane through the forecast period.\n \nThe hurricane is moving westward (270/9 kt). A mid-level ridge over \nthe Central Pacific should steer Lowell westward for the next few \ndays at a gradually slower forward speed. Only minor southward \nadjustments were made to the early part of the NHC forecast to \naccount for current motion trends. An erosion of the steering ridge \nby a mid- to upper-level trough or cutoff low is forecast this \nweekend, which should cause Lowell to slow down further and turn \nsharply northward at days 4-5. The track guidance has shifted \neastward for this portion of the forecast, and the NHC prediction \nwas adjusted to the right of the previous track in response. There \nremains large model spread and above average uncertainty regarding \nthe details of this anticipated northward turn, so interests in \nHawaii should monitor the latest forecast updates.\n \n \nKEY MESSAGES:\n \n1. Interests in the Hawaiian Islands should continue to closely\nmonitor the progress of Hurricane Lowell.\n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  02/1500Z 13.4N 153.2W  135 KT 155 MPH\n 12H  03/0000Z 13.5N 154.7W  140 KT 160 MPH\n 24H  03/1200Z 13.6N 156.6W  135 KT 155 MPH\n 36H  04/0000Z 13.8N 158.2W  130 KT 150 MPH\n 48H  04/1200Z 13.9N 159.7W  125 KT 145 MPH\n 60H  05/0000Z 13.9N 161.1W  120 KT 140 MPH\n 72H  05/1200Z 14.0N 162.3W  120 KT 140 MPH\n 96H  06/1200Z 14.6N 164.0W  120 KT 140 MPH\n120H  07/1200Z 16.5N 164.0W  120 KT 140 MPH\n \n"}