{"id": "1206810683124121603", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-09-02T15:00:00Z", "msg": "878\nWTPZ43 KNHC 021436\nTCDEP3\n \nTropical Storm Marie Discussion Number   6\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP132026\n800 AM MST Wed Sep 02 2026\n \nConventional satellite animation and microwave images indicate that \nMarie's cloud pattern has improved during the past several hours.  \nAn impressive primary spiral band with cold cloud tops of -83C \nresides on the eastern half of the cyclone, and inner core deep \nconvection continues to become better organized.  A compromise of \nTAFB's Dvorak satellite intensity estimate and the CIMSS objective \nestimates yields an initial intensity of 60 kt for this advisory.\n \nFavorable environmental conditions along with warm sea surface \ntemperatures should allow for further strengthening during the \ncouple of days.  By the weekend, the Decay-SHIPS \nstatistical/dynamical intensity guidance and the global models \nindicate that Marie will encounter a drier, stable marine layer air \nmass while moving over progressively cooler oceanic temperatures.  \nThe NHC intensity forecast is close to the HFIP HCCA consensus and \njust above the IVCN consensus aid.\n\nMarie's initial motion is estimated to be northwest, or 305/8 kt, \nand this general motion should continue through today.  Afterward, \nsubtropical high pressure over northern Mexico/Baja California \npeninsula is expected to build westward over the extreme eastern \nPacific, steering the cyclone generally west-northwestward.  Over \nthe weekend, the above-mentioned ridge should weaken some, and model \nguidance cross-track uncertainty remains due to two possible \nsynoptic pattern solutions.  A few of the regional models \n(HWRF/HMON/TC-COAMPS) and the UKMET indicate an amplifying mid- to \nupper-level trough capturing Marie and steering the cyclone toward \nthe northwest to north.  The majority of the guidance, on the other \nhand, show a cut-off upper low developing well to the north over the \neastern Pacific but allowing enough ridging to maintain north of the \ncyclone.  The official track forecast favors the latter solution and \nlies between the HCCA consensus and the Google DeepMind FNv3 \nensemble mean.\n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  02/1500Z 17.1N 111.7W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 12H  03/0000Z 17.8N 112.8W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 24H  03/1200Z 18.7N 114.2W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 36H  04/0000Z 19.4N 115.8W   85 KT 100 MPH\n 48H  04/1200Z 20.1N 117.3W   90 KT 105 MPH\n 60H  05/0000Z 20.7N 118.6W   90 KT 105 MPH\n 72H  05/1200Z 21.3N 119.8W   85 KT 100 MPH\n 96H  06/1200Z 22.5N 122.2W   75 KT  85 MPH\n120H  07/1200Z 23.2N 125.4W   65 KT  75 MPH\n \n"}