{"id": "1206810584795185155", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-09-02T15:00:00Z", "msg": "866\nWTPZ41 KNHC 021435\nTCDEP1\n \nHurricane Karina Discussion Number  25\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP112026\n500 AM HST Wed Sep 02 2026\n \nKarina continues to exhibit a circular, annular structure on \nproxy-vis and infrared satellite imagery. The hurricane has a \nwell-defined, warm 30 n mi eye, with deep convection wrapping around \nthe inner core. The latest objective and subjective satellite \nintensity estimates from UW-CIMSS and TAFB range from 109 to 137 kt. \nBased on the steady satellite appearance and a range of these \nestimates, the intensity is held at 125 kt.\n \nThe hurricane continues to move westward at an estimated motion of \n285/9 kt. The steering flow remains unchanged, with the system \nexpected to continue moving westward to west-northwestward along the \nsouthern side of a ridge located to the north. As a mid-level low \nmoves north of the Hawaiian islands the ridge will weaken, and the \nsystem should move northwestward. The latest NHC track is similar \nto the previous and lies close to the HCCA and GDMI aids.\n \nKarina remains over marginally warm waters sea surface temperatures, \ntracking roughly parallel to the 26-27C isotherm. Wind shear also \nremains low during the next few days, before increasing beyond 72 h. \nSome fluctuations in intensity are possible today, before a gradual \nweakening trend is expected. In about 2-3 days, the system should \nbegin to move into a drier environment and over cooler SSTs, \nalthough given the annular structure, weakening is anticipated to be \nmore gradual than normal. The NHC intensity guidance is higher than \nmost of the guidance, given the annular structure, and shows a \ngradual rate of weakening during the early part of the forecast \nperiod before a more steady rate of weakening by the end of the \nperiod. Global infrared simulated satellite imagery shows that \nKarina will struggle to produce organized deep convection by day 5, \ndue to the shear and dry air, and the NHC forecast now calls for the \nsystem to become post-tropical at that time.\n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  02/1500Z 18.8N 132.8W  125 KT 145 MPH\n 12H  03/0000Z 19.2N 134.2W  125 KT 145 MPH\n 24H  03/1200Z 19.7N 136.2W  120 KT 140 MPH\n 36H  04/0000Z 20.1N 138.2W  110 KT 125 MPH\n 48H  04/1200Z 20.5N 140.0W   95 KT 110 MPH\n 60H  05/0000Z 21.0N 141.7W   85 KT 100 MPH\n 72H  05/1200Z 21.7N 143.1W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 96H  06/1200Z 23.6N 145.1W   60 KT  70 MPH\n120H  07/1200Z 26.0N 148.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\n \n"}