{"id": "1206743137515732995", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-09-02T09:00:00Z", "msg": "956\nWTPA44 PHFO 020852\nTCDCP4\n \nHurricane Lowell Discussion Number  24\nNWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP122026\nIssued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n1100 PM HST Tue Sep 01 2026\n\nSatellite imagery shows that Lowell is a well-organized, compact \nhurricane that has continued to intensify since the last advisory.  \nThe initial intensity is set to 125 kt, between a blend of the \nvarious subjective and objective Dvorak estimates from 118-137 kt. \nLowell has undergone an impressive 65-kt very rapid intensification \nduring the last 24 hours, and it should remain in generally \nconducive large-scale conditions of warm water and light shear for \nthe next several days. The storm could even make category 5 \nintensity on Wednesday before a series of eyewall replacement \ncycles likely commence by Thursday.  The intensity forecast is \nraised in the short term, but otherwise is similar to the previous \none, on the higher side of the guidance envelope.  There is a high \nlikelihood that Lowell will remain a powerful hurricane for days to \ncome, with the intensity governed largely by internal dynamics \n(like eyewall replacements).\n\nThe initial motion is westward at 10 kt. A westward motion is \nanticipated during the next several days due to a mid-level ridge \nover the Central Pacific.   By Sunday, an upper-level trough is \nexpected to weaken the ridge, causing Lowell to slow down and take a \nmore northward turn, though there is considerable uncertainty on \nhow sharp that turn might be.  Similar to the last advisory, the \nofficial track forecast is nudged slightly southward, near the HCCA \nand GDMI track aids. \n \nKEY MESSAGES:\n \n1. Interests in the Hawaiian Islands should continue to closely\nmonitor the progress of Hurricane Lowell.\n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  02/0900Z 13.5N 152.2W  125 KT 145 MPH\n 12H  02/1800Z 13.6N 153.7W  135 KT 155 MPH\n 24H  03/0600Z 13.7N 155.7W  130 KT 150 MPH\n 36H  03/1800Z 13.9N 157.5W  125 KT 145 MPH\n 48H  04/0600Z 14.0N 159.2W  125 KT 145 MPH\n 60H  04/1800Z 14.0N 160.6W  120 KT 140 MPH\n 72H  05/0600Z 14.0N 161.9W  120 KT 140 MPH\n 96H  06/0600Z 14.3N 164.0W  120 KT 140 MPH\n120H  07/0600Z 15.6N 164.7W  120 KT 140 MPH\n \n"}