{"id": "1206741557912928259", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-09-02T09:00:00Z", "msg": "762\nWTPZ43 KNHC 020844\nTCDEP3\n \nTropical Storm Marie Discussion Number   5\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP132026\n200 AM MST Wed Sep 02 2026\n\nSatellite imagery shows that Marie continues to produce deep \nconvection near the center, with a large curved band in the \nsoutheastern semicircle of the storm.  An earlier microwave image \ndid show that the inner core remains in the primitive stages of \ndevelopment, though that was several hours ago now.  Intensity \nestimates are about the same as the last cycle, so the current winds \nwill remain 55 kt.  \n\nMarie remains on a northwestward heading tonight, steered by a \ndistant ridge over Mexico.  The ridge is forecast to build westward \nlater this week, which will likely force Marie to move more towards \nthe west-northwest.  Track uncertainty is high by the weekend due \nto an approaching mid-latitude trough over the eastern Pacific, \nthough the bulk of the guidance show this trough missing the storm. \nThe new NHC forecast is very similar to the previous one, showing \nthe west-northwestward track at the end of the forecast, and lying \nnear the typically reliable HCCA and GDMI consensus aids.\n\nThe storm has a couple of days over very warm waters within light \nshear for intensification.  The biggest current hindrance is \nprobably the earlier-observed broad microwave structure, though \nvery deep convection is near the center.  Thus the NHC forecast \nwill stay on the aggressive side of the guidance, and little \nchange is made to the previous forecast.  By the weekend, Marie is \nforecast to move over cooler SSTs and into a drier, more stable air \nmass, which should induce a gradual weakening trend.\n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  02/0900Z 16.7N 111.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 12H  02/1800Z 17.5N 112.1W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 24H  03/0600Z 18.4N 113.6W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 36H  03/1800Z 19.1N 115.1W   85 KT 100 MPH\n 48H  04/0600Z 19.7N 116.6W   90 KT 105 MPH\n 60H  04/1800Z 20.2N 118.0W   90 KT 105 MPH\n 72H  05/0600Z 20.8N 119.3W   85 KT 100 MPH\n 96H  06/0600Z 22.1N 121.8W   80 KT  90 MPH\n120H  07/0600Z 22.8N 124.6W   65 KT  75 MPH\n \n"}