{"id": "1206741361330847747", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-09-02T09:00:00Z", "msg": "754\nWTPZ41 KNHC 020843\nTCDEP1\n \nHurricane Karina Discussion Number  24\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP112026\n1100 PM HST Tue Sep 01 2026\n \nKarina's satellite presentation is even a little more impressive \nthan it was earlier today.  The hurricane is exhibiting a \nwell-defined 25 n mi diameter eye embedded in very deep convection.  \nThe eye temperature on satellite imagery has warmed to around 16 deg \nC over the past several hours. Using a blend of objective satellite \nestimates, the advisory intensity is set at 125 kt.  This is close \nto the latest DPRINT value from UW-CIMSS.  Karina's cloud pattern is \nquite symmetrical and is typical of an annular hurricane.\n\nKarina continues moving just slightly north of due west, or around \n280/10 kt.  The track forecast philosophy is basically unchanged \nfrom the previous few advisories.  The flow on the southern side of \na narrow mid-tropospheric ridge should continue to steer the system \non a westward to west-northwestward course for the next 3 days or \nso.  Later in the forecast period, a more northwestward track is \nlikely due to the influence of a mid-level cyclone to the north of \nHawaii.  The new official forecast is very similar to the previous \nNHC track and is a blend of the latest ECMWF, HCCA, and Google \nDeepMind predictions.  There is fairly high confidence that Karina \nwill pass to the north of the Hawaiian Islands.\n\nKarina remains over marginally warm waters with low vertical wind \nshear.  Therefore, the hurricane has an opportunity for some \nadditional strengthening during the next 12 hours or so.  A gradual \nweakening trend should commence thereafter due to drier air and \nsomewhat cooler waters.  However, since Karina appears to be \nan annular hurricane, its weakening during the forecast period is \nlikely to be slower than normal.  The official intensity forecast \nis generally above the model guidance owing to the annular nature \nof the system.  Karina is likely to maintain hurricane strength for \nat least the next 72 hours.\n\n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  02/0900Z 18.5N 131.7W  125 KT 145 MPH\n 12H  02/1800Z 19.0N 133.1W  130 KT 150 MPH\n 24H  03/0600Z 19.5N 135.0W  125 KT 145 MPH\n 36H  03/1800Z 19.9N 137.0W  110 KT 125 MPH\n 48H  04/0600Z 20.4N 139.0W   95 KT 110 MPH\n 60H  04/1800Z 20.8N 140.8W   85 KT 100 MPH\n 72H  05/0600Z 21.4N 142.3W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 96H  06/0600Z 22.9N 144.8W   60 KT  70 MPH\n120H  07/0600Z 25.2N 147.1W   50 KT  60 MPH\n \n"}