{"id": "1206669489415028739", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-09-02T03:00:00Z", "msg": "724\nWTPZ41 KNHC 020238\nTCDEP1\n \nHurricane Karina Discussion Number  23\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP112026\n500 PM HST Tue Sep 01 2026\n \nThe infrared satellite presentation for Karina has improved over\nthe last several hours as the cloud tops have cooled down to around\n-70 degrees Celsius. Based on the presentation from the infrared \nand analysis from the SHIP guidance, Karina has developed annular \ncharacteristics. However, the eye still remains cloud filled at\nthis time. The current satellite intensity estimates range from\n114 to 129 kt. Therefore, the initial intensity for this advisory \nhas been brought up to 120 kt.\n \nThe major hurricane is moving westward at about 9 kt. A general\nslow westward to west-northwestward motion is expected during the\nnext 3 to 4 days as a narrow mid-level ridge remains situated to the\nnorth of the hurricane. During the weekend, a turn to the northwest\nseems likely as the ridge shifts eastward and the cyclone \napproaches a mid- to upper-level low north of Hawaii.  The current \nNHC forecast track is very similiar to the previous one with \nonly small adjustments in speed and is slightly to the right \nof the previous track. The current official forecast track \ncontinues to keep the hurricane to the north of the Hawaiian \nIslands. \n\nIn the short term, the hurricane has the opportunity to intensify a \nbit, however, in the long run, the environment will become less \nfavorable for Karina due to cooler ocean waters and decreasing \nrelative humidity. With Karina developing annular characteristics \nthe rate of weakening is expected to be slower at first. The current \nNHC intensity forecast shows a bit of strengthening within the first \n12 h, and then a gradual weakening for 24 to 60h. Past 60 h, the \nrate of weakening should increase as the low- to mid-level relative \nhumidity drops below 40%. \n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  02/0300Z 18.3N 130.8W  120 KT 140 MPH\n 12H  02/1200Z 18.7N 132.3W  125 KT 145 MPH\n 24H  03/0000Z 19.1N 134.2W  120 KT 140 MPH\n 36H  03/1200Z 19.5N 136.1W  110 KT 125 MPH\n 48H  04/0000Z 19.9N 138.0W  100 KT 115 MPH\n 60H  04/1200Z 20.2N 139.8W   95 KT 110 MPH\n 72H  05/0000Z 20.7N 141.6W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 96H  06/0000Z 22.3N 144.3W   65 KT  75 MPH\n120H  07/0000Z 24.5N 146.8W   50 KT  60 MPH\n \n"}