{"id": "1206669286711951363", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-09-02T03:00:00Z", "msg": "716\nWTPA44 PHFO 020237\nTCDCP4\n \nHurricane Lowell Discussion Number  23\nNWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP122026\nIssued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n500 PM HST Tue Sep 01 2026\n \nLowell's satellite presentation continues to improve, characteristic \nof a rapidly intensifying cyclone. Deep, cold convection is wrapping \naround a fluctuating eye on infrared and visible satellite imagery. \nOver the past few hours, lightning activity has also increased \nwithin the eyewall. Objective and subjective satellite intensity \nestimates continue to rise as they attempt to catch up with the \nongoing rapid intensification. The latest subjective Dvorak estimate \nfrom HFO was T5.5, but was constrained, with a Data-T of 6.0/115 kt. \nBased on these estimates and the continued improving satellite \ntrends, the initial intensity is set at 115 kt for this advisory.\n \nLowell remains within a favorable environment characterized by warm \nsea surface temperatures and low vertical wind shear. The system is \nlikely to continue strengthening and is expected to remain a major \nhurricane throughout the remainder of the forecast period. However, \nfluctuations in intensity are possible due to internal structural \nchanges, such as eyewall replacement cycles. Based on current \nconditions and recent trends, the official NHC intensity forecast \nremains near the upper end of the guidance suite.\n \nThe initial motion is westward, or 275/9 kt. A westward to \nwest-northwestward motion should continue throughout much of the \nforecast period as Lowell is steered by a mid-level ridge located to \nthe north. The official track forecast has once again been adjusted \nslightly southward during this time frame, trending closer to the \nHCCA and GDMI track aids. Toward the end of the forecast period, \ntrack uncertainty increases. An upper-level trough approaching from \nthe west is forecast to move north of the Hawaiian Islands, \nweakening the aforementioned ridge. This evolution will cause Lowell \nto decelerate and begin turning toward the northwest or north late \nin the period. Interests in the Hawaiian Islands should continue to \nclosely monitor Lowell's progress.\n \nKey Messages:\n \n1. Interests in the Hawaiian Islands should continue to closely\nmonitor the progress of Hurricane Lowell.\n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  02/0300Z 13.5N 151.2W  115 KT 130 MPH\n 12H  02/1200Z 13.5N 152.7W  130 KT 150 MPH\n 24H  03/0000Z 13.6N 154.7W  130 KT 150 MPH\n 36H  03/1200Z 13.9N 156.6W  125 KT 145 MPH\n 48H  04/0000Z 14.0N 158.4W  125 KT 145 MPH\n 60H  04/1200Z 14.2N 159.9W  120 KT 140 MPH\n 72H  05/0000Z 14.2N 161.3W  120 KT 140 MPH\n 96H  06/0000Z 14.5N 163.7W  120 KT 140 MPH\n120H  07/0000Z 15.6N 164.4W  120 KT 140 MPH\n \n"}