{"id": "1206668906182213635", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-09-02T03:00:00Z", "msg": "695\nWTPZ43 KNHC 020235\nTCDEP3\n \nTropical Storm Marie Discussion Number   4\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP132026\n800 PM MST Tue Sep 01 2026\n \nThe satellite presentation for Marie continues to improve this \nevening, with the low-level center beneath deep convection with \ncold cloud tops near -80C. Satellite intensity estimates have also \nincreased, with the latest subjective Dvorak intensity estimate from \nTAFB T3.5/55 kt. Objective intensity estimates from UW-CIMSS range \nfrom 37 to 55 kt. Based on the improving satellite trends and these \nestimates, the initial intensity is raised to 55kt.\n\nThe initial motion is northwestward, or 310/8 kt. This motion is \nexpected to continue for the next day or so as Marie rounds the \nwestern periphery of a mid-level ridge over Mexico. The ridge is \nthen forecast to build to the north of the system, which should \ncause Marie to gradually turn toward the west-northwest. Beyond 72 \nhours, track uncertainty increases as an amplifying trough along the \nU.S. West Coast is forecast to cause the system to slow down. While \nthere is less confidence in the track late in the forecast period, \nthe latest NHC forecast continues to lie near the reliable HCCA and \nGDMI consensus aids with a more westward track.\n \nMarie is moving over warm sea surface temperatures and will remain \nin a low vertical wind shear environment for the next couple of \ndays. The system remains fairly broad, but steady strengthening is \nanticipated once the structure becomes better organized. Some of the \nlatest SHIPS rapid intensification guidance is around a 50 percent \nchance of RI in the next 24 h. The new NHC intensity forecast is \nsimilar to the previous one and closely follows the trends of the \nHCCA and IVCN consensus aids, although does not explicitly call for \nrapid intensification. Some guidance shows a faster rate of \nstrengthening, though this remains heavily dependent on how quickly \nthe system's structure improves. Toward the end of the forecast \nperiod, Marie is forecast to move over cooler SSTs and into a drier, \nmore stable air mass, which should induce a gradual weakening \ntrend.\n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  02/0300Z 16.1N 110.3W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 12H  02/1200Z 16.9N 111.4W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 24H  03/0000Z 17.9N 112.8W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 36H  03/1200Z 18.7N 114.3W   85 KT 100 MPH\n 48H  04/0000Z 19.4N 115.9W   90 KT 105 MPH\n 60H  04/1200Z 19.8N 117.3W   90 KT 105 MPH\n 72H  05/0000Z 20.5N 118.8W   90 KT 105 MPH\n 96H  06/0000Z 21.8N 121.3W   80 KT  90 MPH\n120H  07/0000Z 22.8N 123.9W   65 KT  75 MPH\n \n"}