{"msg": "957\nAXPZ20 KNHC 012151\nTWDEP \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n2205 UTC Tue Sep 1 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from\n03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and\nfrom the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following\ninformation is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,\nradar, and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through\n2135 UTC.\n...SPECIAL FEATURES...\nHurricane Karina is centered near 18.2N 129.9W at 01/2100 UTC,\nmoving west at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 949\nmb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 115 kt with gusts to 140 kt.\nPeak seas are around 40 ft. Numerous moderate to scattered \nstrong convection is noted from 15N to 22N between 127W and \n133W. Karina is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson \nHurricane Wind Scale. Gradual weakening is expected during the \nnext several days. Karina is moving toward the west near 9 kt and\na westward to west-northwestward motion is expected during the \nnext few days.\nTropical Storm Marie is centered near 15.5N 109.5W at 01/2100 UTC, \nmoving northwest at 7 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 997 \nmb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt. Peak \nseas are around 18 ft. Numerous moderate to scattered strong \nconvection is noted from 08N to 20N between 101W and 117W. Marie is \nmoving toward the northwest near 7 kt. A turn toward the west-\nnorthwest is expected on Wednesday and that motion should continue \nthrough Thursday. Additional strengthening is expected during the \nnext 48 hours, and Marie is expected to become a hurricane on \nWednesday. Swells generated by Marie will affect portions of the \ncoast of southwest Mexico and the Baja California Peninsula for the \nnext few days and will likely spread northward to southern \nCalifornia over the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-\nthreatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products \nfrom your local weather office.\nPlease read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National\nHurricane Center at website - \nhttps://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest NHC \nTropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details.\n \n...TROPICAL WAVES...\nA tropical wave is along 86W, extending across Central America \nto 04N, moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated \nstrong convection is occurring north of 02N and between 80W and \n90W. \n...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...\nThe monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 13N104W. Numerous \nmoderate and scattered strong convection is present from 03N to \n10N and east of 100W.\n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...\nPlease see the Special Features section for more information on \nTropical Storm Marie centered SW of Mexico.\nAside from the impacts of Tropical Storm Marie, a weak pressure \ngradient across the offshore waters of Baja California sustains \nmoderate or weaker winds and moderate seas. The gradient a bit \ntighter in the northern Gulf of California allowing for locally \nfresh southerly winds and slight seas. Elsewhere, light to gentle \nwinds and slight to moderate seas prevail.\nFor the forecast, Tropical Storm Marie is near 15.5N 109.5W\nat 2 PM PDT, and is moving northwest at 7 kt. Maximum sustained \nwinds are 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt, and the minimum central \npressure is 997 mb. Marie will move to 16.5N 110.5W Wed morning, \nstrengthen to a hurricane near 17.5N 111.8W Wed afternoon, 18.4N \n113.2W Thu morning, 19.2N 114.8W Thu afternoon, 19.8N 116.4W Fri \nmorning, and 20.3N 117.9W Fri afternoon. Marie will change little in\nintensity as it moves to the 21.7N 120.3W Sat afternoon. Elsewhere,\na tighter pressure gradient will result in fresh to locally \nstrong southerly winds and moderate seas in the northern Gulf of \nCalifornia tonight into Fri night.\n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, \nAND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...\nHigh pressure north of the area supports moderate to locally fresh\neasterly winds and moderate seas in the Gulf of Papagayo region,\nextending outward to 90W. Moderate or weaker winds and slight to\nmoderate seas prevail elsewhere.\nFor the forecast, the subtropical ridge north of the Caribbean\nwill sustain moderate to fresh easterly trade winds and moderate\nseas across the Gulf of Papagayo through the workweek. Winds may\npulse to strong speeds at night late this week into the upcoming\nweekend. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and slight to \nmoderate seas will prevail.\n...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...\nPlease see the Special Features section for more information\nabout Hurricane Karina centered between Mexico and Hawaii, and \nTropical Storm Marie located southwest of Mexico.\nAside from the impacts of Hurricane Karina and Tropical Storm \nMarie, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas dominate the\ntropical eastern Pacific. A small area of cross equatorial swell\nis noted south of the equator producing seas to 8 ft.\nFor the forecast, Hurricane Karina is near 18.2N 129.9W at 2 PM\nPDT, and is moving west at 10 kt. Maximum sustained winds are \n115 kt with gusts to 140 kt, and the minimum central pressure is \n949 mb. Karina will move to 18.4N 131.4W Wed morning, 18.9N \n133.3W Wed afternoon, 19.3N 135.2W Thu morning, 19.7N 137.1W Thu \nafternoon, 20.0N 138.9W Fri morning, and 20.3N 140.8W Fri \nafternoon. Karina will weaken to a tropical storm over 21.6N \n143.9W Sat afternoon. Tropical Storm Marie is near 15.5N 109.5W\nat 2 PM PDT, and is moving northwest at 7 kt. Maximum sustained \nwinds are 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt, and the minimum central \npressure is 997 mb. Marie will move to 16.5N 110.5W Wed morning, \nstrengthen to a hurricane near 17.5N 111.8W Wed afternoon, 18.4N \n113.2W Thu morning, 19.2N 114.8W Thu afternoon, 19.8N 116.4W Fri \nmorning, and 20.3N 117.9W Fri afternoon. Marie will change little\nin intensity as it moves to the 21.7N 120.3W Sat afternoon. \nElsewhere, the cross equatorial swell will remain south of 02N over\nthe next few days, producing seas to 9 ft before subsiding late \nthis week.\n", "title": "Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1206613072601251843", "issued": "2026-09-01T22:05:00Z", "wmo": "AXPZ20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1206613072601251843"}