{"id": "1206597912480153603", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-09-01T21:00:00Z", "msg": "798\nWTPA44 PHFO 012034\nTCDCP4\n \nHurricane Lowell Discussion Number  21\nNWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP122026\nIssued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n1100 AM HST Tue Sep 01 2026\n \n \nSatellite imagery indicates that Lowell continues to strengthen, as\nevidenced by the improvement in the structure of the core.  A large\ncentral dense overcast with very cold cloud tops covers the center.\nThe latest subjective Dvorak estimates from JTWC and PHFO range from\n65-90 kt, and the latest objective intensity estimates range from\n69-78 kt.  The initial intensity is increased to 80 kt, blending the\nestimates.\n \nThe initial motion is west-northwestward, or about 285/9 kt.  A\nmid-level subtropical ridge north of Lowell will remain the primary\nsteering influence during the next 4 days, resulting in a generally\nwestward to west-northwestward motion, and confidence is high on\nthis general track scenario.  A slight southward adjustment was made\nto the NHC track forecast at days 3-5, but the new forecast is not\nas far south as the latest HFIP Corrected Consensus Approach (HCCA)\nand Google DeepMind Ensemble Mean (GDMI) models.  In about 4 days,\nLowell should slow down, as a mid- to upper-level trough well north\nof the Hawaiian Islands weakens the subtropical ridge.  The trough\ncould cause Lowell to start a turn to the northwest or north in\nabout 5 days.  For this reason, interests in the Hawaiian Islands\nshould continue to closely monitor Lowell's progress.\n \nWarm water temperatures and weak vertical shear should continue \nalong Lowell's path for at least the next 5 days.  Lowell will \nlikely strengthen to a major hurricane over the next 24 h.  It is \nquite possible that Lowell could then maintain major hurricane \nstrength through the next 5 days.  Very little change has been made \nto the previous NHC intensity forecast, which lies between the \nmiddle and upper end of the guidance envelope.  Given that Lowell \nmay be in the midst of rapid intensification, and that some models \nlike the HCCA show an even higher intensity, it is possible that \nLowell could strengthen more than forecast.\n \nKey Messages:\n \n1. Interests in the Hawaiian Islands should continue to closely\nmonitor the progress of Hurricane Lowell.\n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  01/2100Z 13.5N 150.3W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 12H  02/0600Z 13.7N 151.7W   95 KT 110 MPH\n 24H  02/1800Z 13.8N 153.7W  105 KT 120 MPH\n 36H  03/0600Z 14.0N 155.7W  110 KT 125 MPH\n 48H  03/1800Z 14.2N 157.6W  110 KT 125 MPH\n 60H  04/0600Z 14.4N 159.2W  110 KT 125 MPH\n 72H  04/1800Z 14.5N 160.6W  110 KT 125 MPH\n 96H  05/1800Z 14.7N 163.3W  110 KT 125 MPH\n120H  06/1800Z 15.3N 164.9W  110 KT 125 MPH\n \n"}