{"id": "1206597621587542019", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-09-01T21:00:00Z", "msg": "755\nWTPZ43 KNHC 012032\nTCDEP3\n \nTropical Storm Marie Discussion Number   3\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP132026\n200 PM MST Tue Sep 01 2026\n \nThe satellite presentation of Marie continues to improve with \ncurved bands over the northern and eastern portions of the \ncirculation.  Recent scatterometer data shows that Marie has a \nlarge wind field with tropical-storm-force winds extending outward \nup to 160 nautical miles over the eastern semicircle.  The ASCAT \ndata revealed peak winds of 45 kt and given the typical \nundersampling of that instrument, the initial intensity has been \nraised to 50 kt.  That value is near a consensus of the various \nsubjective and objective satellite intensity estimates. \n\nThe storm will be moving over sea surface temperatures around \n29 degrees Celsius and remain in a low shear environment during the \nnext couple of days.  With the large radius of maximum winds, it \nmay take a little time for the system to establish an inner core, \nbut once that occurs steady intensification is likely.  The NHC \nintensity forecast is a little higher than the previous forecast \nand lies between the HCCA and GDMI models.  There is some potential \nthat Marie could strengthen more quickly over the next day or two \nthan indicated in the forecast below. After day 4, cooler SSTs and \na more stable airmass are expected to cause gradual weakening. \n\nMarie continues to move northwestward around the western portion of \na mid-level ridge over Mexico.  A narrow ridge is forecast to \nestablish itself to the north of Marie in a day or two, which \nshould cause the system to turn west-northwestward. After 72 hours, \nan amplifying mid-level trough along the west coast of the United \nState could cause Marie to slow down.  It is after that time period \nthat there is larger spread in the track guidance. The NHC forecast \nleans closer to the typically reliable HFIP corrected consensus \nmodel and the Google Deep Mind ensemble mean. \n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  01/2100Z 15.5N 109.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 12H  02/0600Z 16.5N 110.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 24H  02/1800Z 17.5N 111.8W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 36H  03/0600Z 18.4N 113.2W   85 KT 100 MPH\n 48H  03/1800Z 19.2N 114.8W   90 KT 105 MPH\n 60H  04/0600Z 19.8N 116.4W   90 KT 105 MPH\n 72H  04/1800Z 20.3N 117.9W   90 KT 105 MPH\n 96H  05/1800Z 21.7N 120.3W   80 KT  90 MPH\n120H  06/1800Z 22.9N 122.9W   70 KT  80 MPH\n \n"}