{"id": "1206597414532644867", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-09-01T21:00:00Z", "msg": "736\nWTPZ41 KNHC 012031\nTCDEP1\n \nHurricane Karina Discussion Number  22\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP112026\n1100 AM HST Tue Sep 01 2026\n \nKarina remains a powerful major hurricane. However, the cyclone \nappears to have lost a little strength. The eye of the hurricane \nremains cloud filled and the cloud tops around the eye are not quite \nas cold as they were earlier this morning. The latest satellite \nintensity estimates range from 90 kt to about 135 kt, and based on \nthat data and the slightly degraded appearance, the initial \nintensity is nudged lower to 115 kt.\n \nThe major hurricane is moving westward at about 10 kt. A general \nslow westward to west-northwestward motion is expected during the \nnext 3 to 4 days as a narrow mid-level ridge remains situated to the \nnorth of the hurricane. Over the weekend, a turn to the northwest \nseems likely as the ridge shifts eastward and as the cyclone \napproaches a mid- to upper-level low north of Hawaii. Little change \nwas made to the previous forecast, except for a slight northward \nadjustment at days 4 and 5. Even though there is a fair amount of \nspread in the models toward the end of the forecast period, there is \nhigh confidence that the system will pass to the north of the \nHawaiian Islands.\n \nKarina is forecast to gradually lose strength over the next several \ndays. Although the wind shear is expected to remain low for the next \nfew days, progressively cooler SSTs and decreasing relative humidity \nvalues should cause steady weakening. However, the hurricane could \nbecome annular, which might cause it to weaken at a slower pace than \naverage. The models are unanimous in showing weakening, but vary on \nthe rate. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous one, \nand lies a little above the model consensus.\n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  01/2100Z 18.2N 129.9W  115 KT 130 MPH\n 12H  02/0600Z 18.4N 131.4W  110 KT 125 MPH\n 24H  02/1800Z 18.9N 133.3W  100 KT 115 MPH\n 36H  03/0600Z 19.3N 135.2W   90 KT 105 MPH\n 48H  03/1800Z 19.7N 137.1W   85 KT 100 MPH\n 60H  04/0600Z 20.0N 138.9W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 72H  04/1800Z 20.3N 140.8W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 96H  05/1800Z 21.6N 143.9W   60 KT  70 MPH\n120H  06/1800Z 23.6N 146.3W   55 KT  65 MPH\n \n"}