{"id": "1206529574056394755", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-09-01T15:00:00Z", "msg": "942\nWTNT45 KNHC 011446\nTCDAT5\n \nTropical Storm Edouard Discussion Number   5\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052026\n1000 AM CDT Tue Sep 01 2026\n \nEdouard is a small but strengthening tropical storm. The center has \nbeen trackable this morning using NWS radar data from Lake Charles, \nLouisiana (KLCH), and recent data show the inner-core structure of \nthe system is becoming better organized. There has been a notable \nincrease in deep convection near and to the south of the center, and \na recent dropsonde released in that area reported mean boundary \nlayer winds of 61 kt. Doppler velocities have also notably \nstrengthened during the past couple of hours, and adjusting these \ndata to estimate a surface wind support raising the initial \nintensity to 45 kt. The last center dropsonde from the Air Force \nHurricane Hunters showed the central pressure has fallen to 1000 mb.\n \nEnvironmental and oceanic conditions are conducive for additional \nstrengthening for as long as the center remains offshore. With very \nwarm Gulf waters and weak vertical wind shear, the hurricane \nregional models continue to highlight the potential for continued \nstrengthening through landfall. The 12-h forecast point for Edouard \nis well inland, but note that additional strengthening is expected \nthat cannot be easily reflected in the official forecast. A Tropical \nStorm Warning and Hurricane Watch remain in effect for portions of \nthe Upper Texas coast and southwestern Louisiana. Given the improved \nradar structure of Edouard and the expectation of additional \nstrengthening, NHC will issue hourly Tropical Cyclone Updates (TCU) \nbeginning at 1100 am CDT (16 UTC). Once inland, Edouard is likely \nto rapidly weaken and should dissipate on Wednesday.\n\nSome short-term wobbles have been observed in radar data during the \npast few hours, but the longer-term motion of Edouard is \nnorthwestward (305/7 kt). This general motion is expected to \ncontinue through tonight, which will bring the center of Edouard \nonshore near the Texas/Louisiana border within the warning area this \nafternoon and then inland across southeastern Texas tonight. The \nupdated NHC track forecast lies slightly to the right of the \nprevious prediction based on the latest consensus trends.\n \n \nKey Messages:\n \n1. Edouard is strengthening as it approaches the northwest Gulf \nCoast, and tropical storm conditions are beginning along the \nsouthwestern Louisiana and Upper Texas coasts. Hurricane conditions, \nespecially in gusts, are still possible from High Island to Cameron \nlater today.\n \n2. A Storm Surge Warning is in effect along the immediate coast from \nHigh Island, Texas, to the Vermilion/Cameron Parish Line, Louisiana, \nwhere peak values of 3 to 5 feet above ground level are possible.\n \n3. Heavy rain will impact parts of the Upper Texas coast through \neast-central Texas into far Southwest Louisiana today and Wednesday \nas Edouard tracks inland. Flash flooding is likely across this \nregion, especially in urban areas. River flooding may also be \npossible.\n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  01/1500Z 29.4N  93.3W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 12H  02/0000Z 30.2N  94.2W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND\n 24H  02/1200Z 31.2N  95.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND\n 36H  03/0000Z...DISSIPATED\n \n"}