{"id": "1206529573511725059", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-09-01T15:00:00Z", "msg": "941\nWTPA44 PHFO 011446\nTCDCP4\n \nHurricane Lowell Discussion Number  20\nNWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP122026\nIssued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n500 AM HST Tue Sep 01 2026\n\nThe satellite presentation of Lowell has improved significantly\nover the past 12 to 24 hours.  The cyclone consists of a large\ncentral area of very cold cloud tops with an impressive curved band\nextending out towards the southwest quadrant.  The latest\nsubjective Dvorak estimates from JTWC and PHFO range from 55-65 kt,\nand the latest objective intensity estimates range from 60 to 70\nkt.  Based on improving structure observed on satellite imagery\nover the past few hours, the initial intensity is increased to 70\nkt.\n \nThe initial motion is west-northwestward, or about 285/10 kt. A\nmid-level subtropical ridge north of Lowell should remain the\nprimary steering influence during the next 4 days or so, resulting\nin a generally westward to west-northwestward motion. The track\nguidance is in relatively good agreement during this time period,\nand generally shows Lowell continuing west-northwestward through\nday 4.  In about 4 days, the cyclone should slow down, and may gain\nsome latitude as a mid- to upper-level trough well north of the\nHawaiian Islands weakens the subtropical ridge, possibly causing a\nturn toward the northwest by day 5.  The latest NHC track forecast\nis similar to the previous one, and lies close to the Google\nDeepMind Ensemble Mean (GDMI) for the first 2-3 days, and is north\nof the GDMI and HCCA for the 3 to 5 day portion of the forecast.\n \nEnvironmental conditions are ripe for Lowell to intensify rapidly \nover the next day or two.  Now that the core is well-formed, Lowell \nshould be able to take advantage of the weak vertical wind shear and \nwarm sea-surface temperatures.  The HAFS and HWRF models show Lowell \nbecoming a major hurricane within the next 24 to 36 hours, and the \nNHC intensity forecast follows suit.  The SHIPS DTOPS has about a 75 \npercent chance of 45 kt strengthening over the next 36 hours, and \nthe NHC forecast shows 40 kt of strengthening during that time.  The \nnew NHC intensity forecast shows a faster rate of strengthening \nduring the first 36 hours of the forecast, and the peak intensity \nhas been increased slightly to 110 kt.  The new NHC intensity \nforecast lies between the middle and upper end of the intensity \nguidance suite, and is in between the intensity consensus (IVCN) and \nthe HCCA.  Ocean waters should remain warm and vertical wind shear \nis forecast to remain low through day 5, so the NHC forecast holds \nLowell at major hurricane strength through day 5.\n\n\nKey Messages:\n \n1. Interests in the Hawaiian Islands should continue to closely \nmonitor the progress of Hurricane Lowell.\n\n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  01/1500Z 13.4N 149.4W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 12H  02/0000Z 13.6N 150.7W   85 KT 100 MPH\n 24H  02/1200Z 13.7N 152.6W  100 KT 115 MPH\n 36H  03/0000Z 14.0N 154.6W  110 KT 125 MPH\n 48H  03/1200Z 14.3N 156.6W  110 KT 125 MPH\n 60H  04/0000Z 14.5N 158.3W  110 KT 125 MPH\n 72H  04/1200Z 14.7N 159.8W  110 KT 125 MPH\n 96H  05/1200Z 14.9N 162.5W  110 KT 125 MPH\n120H  06/1200Z 15.6N 164.4W  105 KT 120 MPH\n \n"}