{"id": "1206459153281286147", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-09-01T09:00:00Z", "msg": "627\nWTNT45 KNHC 010848\nTCDAT5\n \nTropical Storm Edouard Discussion Number   4\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052026\n400 AM CDT Tue Sep 01 2026\n \nIt has been easy to track the center of Edouard this morning, \nshowing up as a well-defined core of shallow convection on shortwave \ninfrared satellite imagery and radar reflectivity from Lake Charles, \nLouisiana (KLCH). While the final fixes from the prior Air Force \nReserve reconnaissance mission did not show an additional pressure \ndrop, their remarks did note a nascent low-level eyewall was trying \nto form, which can also be seen from land-based radar. This \nstructure could prove important for Edouard's near-term \nintensification prospects as deep convection begins to reform close \nto the storm center. For now, the initial intensity remains 35 kt \nthis advisory, in agreement with radial velocity data from KLCH and \nthe 06 UTC TAFB Dvorak intensity estimate. Another Air Force Reserve \nreconnaissance mission is scheduled to investigate Edouard again \nthis morning. \n \nThe intensity forecast today is problematic. Edouard has managed to \ndevelop a small core that could be prone to rapid changes in \nintensity. In addition, environmental conditions are quite favorable \nfor intensification while Edouard remains over water, with 31 C \nsea-surface temperatures, and low vertical wind shear diagnosed at  \n4 kt by UW-CIMSS. The raw output from the hurricane-regional models \nresponds to these factors by showing substantial intensification \ntoday, with both HMON and HAFS-A making Edouard a hurricane before \nlandfall. HAFS-B and HWRF show a somewhat more tempered rate of \nintensification. Given Edouard's current structure, a rapid \nincrease in intensity before landfall is still anticipated, and the \nlatest NHC forecast shows a 55 kt intensity near landfall, which is \nclose to the raw model HAFS-B output at that time. Of note, this is \nwell above the interpolated intensity guidance which can struggle \nto depict rapid short-term intensity changes in these cases close \nto landfall. After landfall, Edouard should quickly weaken, likely \nbecoming post-tropical in 36 h and dissipating by 48 h. \n \nEdouard continues to move off to the west-northwest at 300/7 kt. A \nprominent low- to mid-level ridge centered over the southeastern \nUnited States should continue to steer the tropical cyclone to the \nwest-northwest then turning more northwest after 24 h as the storm \nrounds the ridge. On this track, Edouard should make landfall later \ntoday near the Louisiana/Texas border, and then push inland over \neastern Texas by tonight. The track guidance remains in good \nagreement, though with just a slight westward shift, and the NHC \ntrack forecast is just a touch west of the previous advisory, \nclosest to the HFIP Corrected Consensus Approach (HCCA).\n \n \nKey Messages:\n \n1. Edouard is expected to strengthen and it could approach hurricane\nstrength before it reaches the northwest Gulf Coast later today.\nTropical Storm conditions are expected along the northwest Gulf\nCoast with hurricane conditions possible from High Island to\nCameron.\n \n2. A Storm Surge Warning is in effect from High Island, Texas to\nthe Vermilion/Cameron Parish Line, Louisiana where peak values of\n3 to 5 feet above ground level are possible along the immediate\ncoast within the warning area.\n \n3. Heavy rain will impact parts of the Upper Texas coast through\neast-central Texas into far Southwest Louisiana today and\ntomorrow as Tropical Storm Edouard tracks inland. Flash flooding is\nlikely across this region, especially in urban areas. River flooding\nmay also be possible.\n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  01/0900Z 29.0N  92.8W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 12H  01/1800Z 29.7N  93.8W   55 KT  65 MPH...ON THE COAST\n 24H  02/0600Z 30.6N  95.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND\n 36H  02/1800Z 31.7N  95.9W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND\n 48H  03/0600Z...DISSIPATED\n \n"}