{"id": "1206457571140304899", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-09-01T09:00:00Z", "msg": "330\nWTPZ43 KNHC 010840\nTCDEP3\n \nTropical Storm Marie Discussion Number   1\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP132026\n200 AM MST Tue Sep 01 2026\n \nSatellite imagery indicates that the deep convection associated with \nthe disturbance offshore of southwestern Mexico has become better \norganized over the past several hours. A 0327 UTC ASCAT-B pass \nshowed a well-defined circulation and peak winds of around 40 kt in \nthe southeastern quadrant. The scatterometer data also indicated \nthat the tropical-storm-force wind field is confined primarily to \nthe southern semicircle of the circulation. A subjective Dvorak \nclassification from TAFB was T2.5/35 kt. Based on these data, \nadvisories are being initiated on Tropical Storm Marie with an \ninitial intensity of 40 kt.\n\nMarie is moving northwestward, or 315/8 kt. The subtropical ridge \nextending westward from northern Mexico should steer Marie \nnorthwestward during the next several days. The ridge is forecast to \ngradually weaken as a broad upper-level trough deepens along the \nU.S. West Coast, which should also result in some decrease in the \ncyclone's forward speed. By days 4 and 5, the upper trough is \nforecast to begin filling while the mid- to upper-level ridge builds \nto the north of Marie, causing the cyclone to gradually turn toward \nthe west-northwest. The track guidance remains tightly clustered \nthrough about day 3, but there is increasing cross-track spread \nthereafter, with some models maintaining a more northward trajectory \nand others showing a sharper west-northwestward turn. The NHC track \nforecast favors the west-northwestward turn shown by the multi-model \nconsensus (HCCA) and the Google DeepMind ensemble mean, but \nconfidence is lower near the end of the forecast period due to the \nincreasing guidance spread.\n\nEnvironmental conditions appear favorable for Marie to steadily \nstrengthen during the next few days. The cyclone is forecast to \nremain over warm waters and within an environment of low vertical \nwind shear and sufficient mid-level moisture. These conditions \nshould allow Marie to become a hurricane in a couple of days, with \nadditional strengthening forecast thereafter. By days 4 and 5, \nhowever, Marie is forecast to encounter a progressively drier \nenvironment while moving over gradually decreasing sea surface \ntemperatures. These less favorable conditions should bring an end to \nthe strengthening trend and result in gradual weakening by the end \nof the forecast period. The NHC intensity forecast shows Marie \nreaching a peak intensity of around 80 kt in about 3 days, and lies \nnear the middle of the intensity guidance envelope.\n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  01/0900Z 13.8N 108.9W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 12H  01/1800Z 14.8N 109.9W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 24H  02/0600Z 16.0N 111.3W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 36H  02/1800Z 17.0N 112.5W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 48H  03/0600Z 18.0N 114.0W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 60H  03/1800Z 18.8N 115.5W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 72H  04/0600Z 19.4N 117.0W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 96H  05/0600Z 20.9N 119.6W   80 KT  90 MPH\n120H  06/0600Z 22.1N 122.1W   70 KT  80 MPH\n \n"}