{"id": "1206456790981607427", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-09-01T09:00:00Z", "msg": "278\nWTPZ41 KNHC 010836\nTCDEP1\n \nHurricane Karina Discussion Number  20\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP112026\n1100 PM HST Mon Aug 31 2026\n\nKarina is maintaining a well-defined eye surrounded by very deep \nconvection with cloud tops to -80 deg C or even colder.  Subjective \nDvorak estimates indicate that the hurricane is maintaining its \nintensity.  In fact, the objective satellite consensus intensity \nestimate, SATCON, from UW-CIMSS suggests that Karina has become \nslightly stronger with an estimated maximum wind speed near 120 kt \nfor this advisory.  There is not much evidence of concentric \neyewalls at this time, and Karina still has some potential to become \nan annular hurricane.\n\nThe estimated motion continues to be west-northwestward, or    \n285/9 kt.  A narrow mid-tropospheric subtropical ridge to the north \nof Karina should keep the system on a west-northwestward to westward \ntrack at about the same forward speed through 72 hours or so.  By \ndays 4-5 a weak mid-level low to the north of the Hawaiian Islands \nshould induce a slightly more northwestward motion.  The official \ntrack forecast is similar to the previous one, and is close to the \nsimple model consensus.  The corrected consensus is a little north \nof the NHC track in the latter part of the forecast period.\n\nKarina is likely to remain over marginally warm ocean waters with \nlow vertical wind shear for the next couple of days.  This should \nkeep the system as a major hurricane through the next 36 hours or \nso.  Although a slightly drier low- to mid-level air mass and \ngradually cooling SSTs should result in slow weakening, Karina \ncould maintain its intensity more than expected if it takes on an \nannular structure.  The official intensity forecast is similar to \nthe model consensus and on the high side of the guidance envelope.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  01/0900Z 18.0N 127.9W  120 KT 140 MPH\n 12H  01/1800Z 18.5N 129.3W  120 KT 140 MPH\n 24H  02/0600Z 18.9N 131.3W  110 KT 125 MPH\n 36H  02/1800Z 19.3N 133.2W  100 KT 115 MPH\n 48H  03/0600Z 19.6N 135.0W   90 KT 105 MPH\n 60H  03/1800Z 19.9N 136.9W   85 KT 100 MPH\n 72H  04/0600Z 20.2N 138.7W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 96H  05/0600Z 20.8N 142.3W   70 KT  80 MPH\n120H  06/0600Z 22.4N 145.4W   65 KT  75 MPH\n \n"}