{"id": "1206456096530989059", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-09-01T09:00:00Z", "msg": "228\nWTPA44 PHFO 010832\nTCDCP4\n \nTropical Storm Lowell Discussion Number  19\nNWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP122026\nIssued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n1100 PM HST Mon Aug 31 2026\n \nLowell's satellite presentation has changed little during the past\nseveral hours. A large area of deep convection continues to expand\nover the low-level circulation center, with cloud-top temperatures\nof -80 C or colder within the developing central dense overcast.\nAlthough some easterly vertical wind shear continues to affect the\ncyclone, the shear has decreased considerably from what was observed\nover the weekend. The latest subjective Dvorak and objective\nintensity estimates have changed little this evening. Therefore, the\ninitial intensity is held at 60 kt.\n \nThe initial motion is westward, or about 280/9 kt. A low- to\nmid-level subtropical ridge north of Lowell should remain the\nprimary steering influence during the next several days, resulting\nin a generally westward to west-northwestward motion. The track\nguidance has come into better agreement and generally shows Lowell\ncontinuing west-northwestward through much of the forecast period.\nBy days 4 and 5, the cyclone is forecast to gradually slow and gain\nsome latitude as a mid- to upper-level trough well northwest of the\nHawaiian Islands weakens the subtropical ridge. The latest NHC track\nforecast is essentially an update of the previous advisory and\nremains between the TVCN simple consensus, the multi-model consensus\n(HCCA), and Google DeepMind ensemble mean.\n \nEnvironmental conditions appear increasingly favorable for \nsignificant strengthening during the next couple of days. Although \nsome easterly vertical wind shear persists, the shear is forecast to \ndecrease further while Lowell moves over warm waters. The recent \nincrease in convection near the center could be an indication that \nthe cyclone is beginning to respond to these improving conditions. \nThe intensity guidance continues to show significant strengthening, \nwith several of the models forecasting Lowell to become a major \nhurricane within the next couple of days. The latest NHC intensity \nforecast calls for Lowell to become a hurricane with the next 12 h \nand a major hurricane by Wednesday night. Little change in intensity \nis forecast thereafter as Lowell remains within a generally \nfavorable environment through day 5.\n \n \nKey Messages:\n \n1. Lowell is forecast to move generally westward to \nwest-northwestward and could be in the vicinity of the Hawaiian \nIslands late this week or this weekend. Interests in Hawaii should \nmonitor the progress of this storm.\n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  01/0900Z 13.1N 148.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 12H  01/1800Z 13.3N 149.9W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 24H  02/0600Z 13.5N 151.7W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 36H  02/1800Z 13.7N 153.7W   95 KT 110 MPH\n 48H  03/0600Z 14.0N 155.6W  105 KT 120 MPH\n 60H  03/1800Z 14.3N 157.5W  105 KT 120 MPH\n 72H  04/0600Z 14.6N 159.2W  105 KT 120 MPH\n 96H  05/0600Z 14.8N 161.9W  105 KT 120 MPH\n120H  06/0600Z 15.2N 164.3W  105 KT 120 MPH\n \n"}