{"msg": "725\nAXPZ20 KNHC 010403\nTWDEP \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n0405 UTC Tue Sep 1 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from\n03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and\nfrom the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following\ninformation is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,\nradar, and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through\n0350 UTC.\n...SPECIAL FEATURES...\nHurricane Karina is centered near 17.8N 126.6W at 01/0300 UTC,\nmoving west-northwest at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central\npressure is 950 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 115 kt with\ngusts to 140 kt. Peak seas are around 35 ft. Numerous moderate \nto scattered strong convection is noted from 14N-20N between \n124W-129W. Karina is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson \nHurricane Wind Scale. Fluctuations in intensity remain possible \nthrough tonight, followed by a gradual weakening trend on\nTuesday. Swells generated by Karina will affect portions of the \ncoast of southwest Mexico and the Baja California Peninsula for \nthe next couple of days and will likely spread northward to \nsouthern California on Monday through midweek. These swells are \nlikely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.\nPlease consult products from your local weather office. \nPlease read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by \nthe National Hurricane Center at website - \nhttps://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest \nKarina NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at \nwww.hurricanes.gov for more details. \nWell Offshore of Southwestern Mexico (EP95):\nA 1006 mb low at 13N107W, designated Invest EP95, is expected to\ndevelop into a tropical cyclone later tonight or tomorrow morning\nwhile it moves steadily toward the northwest. Numerous moderate\nand scattered strong convection is occurring from 05N-13N between\n104W-116W. Scattered moderate convection is elsewhere from\n12N-19N between 98W-112W. Peak winds are currently 30 kt and\nlargest seas 11 ft. Because of this system, a Storm Warning is in\neffect for the zone near the Revillagigedo Islands. Highest winds\nand largest seas should occur Wed and Thu. While the core of the\nsystem may stay outside of the zones west of Baja California Sur,\nfresh to near-gale conditions and large to very large swell are \nlikely to occur in these offshore zones from Thu through Sat.\nPlease read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National\nHurricane Center at website - \nhttps://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest NHC \nTropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details.\n \n...TROPICAL WAVES...\nAnother tropical wave axis is along 95W from 03N-11N, moving \nwest around 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong \nconvection is noted from 02N-10N between 87W-98W.\n...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...\nThe monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 08N100W to 13N118W, \nthen resumes again from 12N126W to beyond 10N140W. Numerous \nmoderate and scattered strong convection is occurring from \n06N-17N between 98W-114W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong \nconvection is noted from 03N-09N E of 87W, and from 05N-11W west\nof 117W.\n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...\nPlease see the Special Features section for more information on \nInvest EP95.\nA 1006 mb low at 13N107W, designated Invest EP95, has peak winds\nof 25 kt and seas to 10 ft over the SW Mexican Offshore Zones\nbetween 104W and 111W. Elsewhere, winds are moderate or weaker \nwith seas 5-7 ft over Pacific waters and 1-3 ft over the Gulf of \nCalifornia.\nFor the forecast, Invest EP95 is expected to develop into a \ntropical cyclone later tonight or tomorrow morning while it moves\nsteadily toward the northwest. Because of this system, a Storm \nWarning is in effect for the zone near the Revillagigedo Islands.\nHighest winds and largest seas should occur Wed and Thu. While \nthe core of the system may stay outside of the zones west of Baja\nCalifornia Sur, fresh to near-gale conditions and large to very \nlarge swell are likely to occur in these offshore zones from Thu \nthrough Sat. Elsewhere, winds and seas should remain quiescent. \n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, \nAND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...\nWinds are moderate to fresh in the Papagayo region and moderate\nor weaker elsewhere with seas 5-6 ft.\nFor the forecast, winds and seas should remain quiescent for the\nnext several days.\n...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...\nPlease see the Special Features section for more information\nabout Hurricane Karina, and Invest EP95.\nAside from Karina and Invest EP95, winds across the High Seas are\nmoderate to locally fresh with seas 5-7 ft.\nFor the forecast, Hurricane Karina is near 17.8N 126.6W at 8 PM \nPDT, and is moving west-northwest at 8 kt. Maximum sustained \nwinds are 115 kt with gusts to 140 kt, and the minimum central \npressure is 950 mb. Karina will move to 18.2N 128.1W Tue morning,\n18.5N 130.2W Tue evening, 18.9N 132.1W Wed morning, 19.3N 134.1W\nWed evening, 19.7N 136.0W Thu morning, and 20.0N 137.9W Thu \nevening. Karina will change little in intensity as it moves near\n20.9N 141.6W late Fri. Invest EP95 is expected to develop into \na tropical cyclone tonight or tomorrow morning while it moves \nsteadily toward the northwest. Because of this system, Storm \nWarnings are in effect for the High Seas waters adjacent to the \nMexico Offshore zone. The system should continue moving \nnorthwestward reaching around 23N120W by Sat night.\n", "title": "Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1206403107684679683", "issued": "2026-09-01T04:05:00Z", "wmo": "AXPZ20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1206403107684679683"}