{"id": "1206389406096424963", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-09-01T03:00:00Z", "msg": "094\nWTNT45 KNHC 010253\nTCDAT5\n \nTropical Storm Edouard Discussion Number   3\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052026\n1000 PM CDT Mon Aug 31 2026\n \nSatellite and radar data showed an increase in banding near the \ncenter of the small tropical cyclone during the late afternoon and \nearly evening hours.  Subjective and objective satellite intensity \nestimates increased to around 35-40 kt, and the initial wind speed \nwas therefore increased to 35 kt on the 0000 UTC intermediate \nadvisory.  Since that time, there has been a pause in the \norganization of the system, but curved bands are noted over the \nnorthern and western portions of the circulation. An Air Force \nReserve reconnaissance aircraft that has been sampling the system \nthis evening reported earlier that the pressure has fallen to \naround 1004 mb, which is quite a bit lower than from this \nafternoon's mission, though the last fix was up a millibar or two.  \nThe flight-level winds do not appear to have responded to the \npressure drop yet, so the initial intensity remains 35 kt for this \nadvisory.\n \nEdouard will be moving over very warm waters of the northwestern\nGulf within a low shear and a sufficiently moist environment\ntonight and Tuesday morning.  As a result, nearly all of the\ndynamical models indicate that the system will strengthen on its\napproach to the coast, with most showing much of the strengthening\noccuring in the final hours before landfall.  Given that the system\nis small, a period of quick organization and strengthening seems\nlikely Tuesday morning.  The NHC forecast calls for intensification\nduring the next 12 hours and additional strengthening could result\nin Edouard nearing hurricane strength when it approaches the\ncoast on Tuesday. Therefore, a Hurricane Watch and Storm Surge\nWarning has been issued for a portion of the northwest Gulf coast\nwith this advisory. The NHC intensity forecast is near the upper-end\nof the guidance envelope. Note that since the peak intensity is\nexpected to occur at landfall (between the 12 and 24 hour forecast\npoints), it is not possible to explicitly reflect Edouard's peak\nintensity in the forecast points below.\n \nEdouard is moving west-northwestward or 300/6 kt.  A low- to\nmid-level ridge over the southeastern United States is expected to\nsteer the cyclone toward the west-northwest to northwest during the\nnext couple of days. This motion should bring the center onshore\nalong the northwestern Gulf Coast on Tuesday and inland over eastern\nTexas Tuesday night.  The track guidance is in good agreement on\nthis scenario and the new NHC track forecast is essentially an\nupdate of the previous track.\n \n \nKey Messages:\n \n1. Edouard is expected to strengthen and it could approach\nhurricane strength before it reaches the northwest Gulf Coast on\nTuesday. Tropical Storm conditions are expected along the northwest\nGulf Coast with hurricane conditions possible from High Island to\nCameron.\n \n2. A Storm Surge Warning has been issued from High Island, Texas to\nthe Vermilion/Cameron Parish Line, Louisiana where peak values of\n3 to 5 feet above ground level are possible along the immediate\ncoast within the warning area.\n \n3. Heavy rain will impact parts of the Upper Texas coast through \neast-central Texas into far Southwest Louisiana Tuesday and \nWednesday as Tropical Storm Edouard tracks inland. Flash flooding is \nlikely across this region, especially in urban areas. River flooding \nmay also be possible.\n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  01/0300Z 28.6N  91.8W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 12H  01/1200Z 29.2N  93.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 24H  02/0000Z 30.1N  94.3W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND\n 36H  02/1200Z 31.1N  95.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND\n 48H  03/0000Z...DISSIPATED\n \n"}