{"id": "1206385565010690051", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-09-01T03:00:00Z", "msg": "700\nWTPZ41 KNHC 010234\nTCDEP1\n \nHurricane Karina Discussion Number  19\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP112026\n500 PM HST Mon Aug 31 2026\n \nLatest visible and infrared satellite imagery show little change in \nKarina's structure over the last several hours. The 00z subjective \nDvorak intensity estimate from TAFB showed an increase to T5.5/102 \nkt, while objective UW-CIMSS estimates range from 110 to 115 kt. \nGiven the steady trend of Karina's appearance on satellite, the \ninitial intensity estimate was held at 115 kt. \n\nKarina's initial motion is estimated to be 285/8 kt, the same as the \nprevious advisory. The storm is expected to continue a \nwest-northwestward motion through the forecast period, guided by \nmid-level ridging centered to the northwest over the north central \nPacific. Other than a slight shift northward, little was changed in \nthe track forecast, which reflects a blend of the previous advisory, \nHCCA, and GDMI.\n\nThe intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory, which \nremains slightly higher than the model consensus. SHIPS guidance \nsuggests that Karina will remain in a favorable environment of low \nvertical wind shear, and over warm SSTs for the next couple of days. \nBeyond Day 3, the system will begin to encounter cooler SSTs and a \ndrier mid-level environment. Thus, the latest forecast continues to \nreflects a more steady weakening trend at that time, near the \nintensity consensus aids.  \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  01/0300Z 17.8N 126.6W  115 KT 130 MPH\n 12H  01/1200Z 18.2N 128.1W  115 KT 130 MPH\n 24H  02/0000Z 18.5N 130.2W  110 KT 125 MPH\n 36H  02/1200Z 18.9N 132.1W  105 KT 120 MPH\n 48H  03/0000Z 19.3N 134.1W  100 KT 115 MPH\n 60H  03/1200Z 19.7N 136.0W   95 KT 110 MPH\n 72H  04/0000Z 20.0N 137.9W   90 KT 105 MPH\n 96H  05/0000Z 20.9N 141.6W   80 KT  90 MPH\n120H  06/0000Z 22.3N 144.6W   70 KT  80 MPH\n \n"}