{"id": "1206385171921469443", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-09-01T03:00:00Z", "msg": "684\nWTPA44 PHFO 010232\nTCDCP4\n \nTropical Storm Lowell Discussion Number  18\nNWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP122026\nIssued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n500 PM HST Mon Aug 31 2026\n \nLowell appears to be showing signs of becoming better organized this \nafternoon. A renewed burst of deep convection has developed and is \nexpanding over the low-level circulation center, coincident with a \ngradual decrease in the easterly vertical wind shear that has been \naffecting the cyclone during the past couple of days. Subjective \nDvorak intensity estimates from JTWC and HFO range from 45 to 65 kt, \nwhile objective estimates are generally between 45 and 55 kt. Given \nthe recent increase in convective organization and the decrease in \nshear, the initial intensity is increased to 60 kt.\n\nThe initial motion is westward, or about 280/9 kt. A low- to \nmid-level subtropical ridge north of Lowell should remain the \nprimary steering influence during the next several days, resulting \nin a generally westward to west-northwestward motion. The track \nguidance has come into better agreement and generally shows Lowell \ncontinuing west-northwestward through much of the forecast period. \nBy days 4 and 5, the cyclone is forecast to gradually slow and gain \nsome latitude as a mid- to upper-level trough well northwest of the \nHawaiian Islands weakens the subtropical ridge. The latest NHC track \nforecast is essentially an update of the previous advisory and \nremains between the TVCN simple consensus, the multi-model consensus \n(HCCA), and Google DeepMind ensemble mean.\n\nEnvironmental conditions appear increasingly favorable for \nsignificant strengthening during the next couple of days. Although \nsome easterly vertical wind shear persists, the shear is forecast to \ndecrease further while Lowell moves over warm waters. The recent \nincrease in convection near the center could be an indication that \nthe cyclone is beginning to respond to these improving conditions. \nThe intensity guidance continues to show significant strengthening, \nwith several of the models forecasting Lowell to become a major \nhurricane within the next couple of days. The latest NHC intensity \nforecast calls for Lowell to become a hurricane with the next 12 h \nand a major hurricane by Wednesday. Little change in intensity is \nforecast thereafter as Lowell remains within a generally favorable \nenvironment through day 5.\n \n \nKey Messages:\n \n1. Lowell is forecast to move generally westward to \nwest-northwestward and could be in the vicinity of the Hawaiian \nIslands late this week or this weekend. Interests in Hawaii should \nmonitor the progress of this storm.\n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  01/0300Z 13.0N 147.4W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 12H  01/1200Z 13.2N 148.8W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 24H  02/0000Z 13.4N 150.7W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 36H  02/1200Z 13.7N 152.5W   95 KT 110 MPH\n 48H  03/0000Z 13.9N 154.5W  105 KT 120 MPH\n 60H  03/1200Z 14.2N 156.4W  105 KT 120 MPH\n 72H  04/0000Z 14.5N 158.2W  105 KT 120 MPH\n 96H  05/0000Z 15.0N 161.3W  105 KT 120 MPH\n120H  06/0000Z 15.3N 163.7W  105 KT 120 MPH\n \n"}