{"msg": "493\nAXPZ20 KNHC 312148\nTWDEP \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n2205 UTC Mon Aug 31 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from\n03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and\nfrom the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following\ninformation is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,\nradar, and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through\n2130 UTC.\n...SPECIAL FEATURES...\nHurricane Karina is centered near 17.5N 125.8W at 31/2100 UTC,\nmoving west-northwest at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central\npressure is 950 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 115 kt with\ngusts to 140 kt. Peak seas are around 35 ft. Numerous moderate \nto scattered strong convection is noted from 15N-19N between \n124W-128W. This general motion is expected to continue through \nthe forecast period. Karina is a category 4 hurricane on the \nSaffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Fluctuations in intensity \nremain possible through tonight, followed by a gradual weakening \ntrend on Tuesday. Swells generated by Karina will affect \nportions of the coast of southwest Mexico and the Baja California\nPeninsula for the next couple of days and will likely spread \nnorthward to southern California on Monday through midweek. These\nswells are likely to cause life- threatening surf and rip \ncurrent conditions. Please consult products from your local \nweather office. \nPlease read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued \nby the National Hurricane Center at website - \nhttps://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest \nKarina NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at \nwww.hurricanes.gov for more details. \nWell Offshore of Southwestern Mexico (EP95):\nA 1005 mb low at 13N107W, designated Invest EP95, is expected to\ndevelop into a tropical cyclone later tonight or tomorrow morning\nwhile it moves steadily toward the northwest. Numerous moderate\nand scattered strong convection is occurring from 06N-17N between\n98W-114W. Peak winds are currently 30 kt and largest seas 11 ft.\nBecause of this system, a Storm Warning is in effect for the \nzone near the Revillagigedo Islands. Highest winds and largest \nseas should occur Wed and Thu. While the core of the system may \nstay outside of the zones west of Baja California Sur, fresh to \nnear-gale conditions and large to very large swell are likely to \noccur in these offshore zones from Thu through Sat.\nPlease read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National\nHurricane Center at website - \nhttps://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest NHC \nTropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details.\n \n...TROPICAL WAVES...\nThe axis of a tropical wave is along 107W from 05N-19N with a \n1005 mb low at 13N107W, moving west around 10 kt. This system is\nalso denoted Invest EP95. Numerous moderate and scattered strong\nconvection is occurring from 06N-17N between 98W-114W. \nAnother tropical wave axis is along 94W from 05N-15N, moving \nwest around 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong \nconvection is noted from 05N-10N between 90W-97W.\n...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...\nThe monsoon trough extends from coastal Panama at 08N82W to \n12N117W. After ending southeast of Karina, the monsoon trough \nresumes again from 09N131W to beyond 08N140W. Numerous moderate \nand scattered strong convection is occurring from 06N-17N between\n98W-114W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is \nnoted from 05N-10N between 90W-97W, north of 05N between 81W-88W,\nand from 04N-10W between 116W-130W.\n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...\nPlease see the Special Features section for more information on \nInvest EP95.\nA 1005 mb low at 13N107W, designated Invest EP95, has peak winds\nover the Mexican Offshore Zones of 25 kt and seas to 9 ft. \nElsewhere, winds are moderate or weaker with seas 5-7 ft over \nPacific waters and 1-3 ft over the Gulf of California. Numerous \nmoderate and scattered strong convection is occurring from \n06N-17N between 98W-114W.\nFor the forecast, Invest EP95 is expected to develop into a \ntropical cyclone later tonight or tomorrow morning while it moves\nsteadily toward the northwest. Because of this system, a Storm \nWarning is in effect for the zone near the Revillagigedo Islands.\nHighest winds and largest seas should occur Wed and Thu. While \nthe core of the system may stay outside of the zones west of Baja\nCalifornia Sur, fresh to near-gale conditions and large to very \nlarge swell are likely to occur in these offshore zones from Thu \nthrough Sat. Elsewhere, winds and seas should remain quiescent. \n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, \nAND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...\nWinds are moderate or weaker over forecast waters with seas 5-6\nft. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is \nnoted north of 05N between 81W-88W.\nFor the forecast, winds and seas should remain quiescent for the\nnext several days.\n...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...\nPlease see the Special Features section for more information\nabout Hurricane Karina, and Invest EP95.\nAside from Karina and Invest EP95, winds across the High Seas are\nmoderate to locally fresh with seas 5-7 ft.\nFor the forecast, Karina will move to 17.7N 127.2W Tue morning, \n18.1N 129.2W Tue afternoon, 18.5N 131.2W Wed morning, 18.9N \n133.1W Wed afternoon, 19.3N 135.0W Thu morning, and 19.6N 136.8W \nThu afternoon. Karina will change little in intensity as it moves\nto 20.3N 140.7W Fri afternoon. Invest EP95 is expected to \ndevelop into a tropical cyclone tonight or tomorrow morning \nwhile it moves steadily toward the northwest. Because of this \nsystem, Storm Warnings are in effect for the High Seas waters \nadjacent to the Mexico Offshore zone. The system should continue \nmoving northwestward reaching around 23N120W by Sat night.\n", "title": "Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1206329322333536259", "issued": "2026-08-31T22:05:00Z", "wmo": "AXPZ20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1206329322333536259"}