{"id": "1206318691380920323", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-08-31T21:00:00Z", "msg": "832\nWTNT45 KNHC 312054\nTCDAT5\n \nTropical Depression Five Discussion Number   2\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052026\n400 PM CDT Mon Aug 31 2026\n \nThe Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft data through early this\nafternoon showed the low-level circulation of this system gradually\nbecoming better defined, and it was sufficient to designate it as\nTropical Depression Five for the 18 UTC intermediate advisory. This\nis consistent with the improved radar and satellite presentation of\nthe system, with a prominent curved band now evident to the south of\nthe center. The aircraft measured peak 850-mb flight-level winds of\n38 kt earlier today, and TAFB provided a T2.0/30 kt Dvorak estimate\nat 18 UTC. These data support a 30-kt intensity for this advisory.\nAnother Air Force Hurricane Hunter mission is scheduled to\ninvestigate the system tonight.\n \nThe center of the depression lies to the north and east of prior\nestimates based on the aircraft data and recent surface\nobservations. A low-level ridge over the southeastern United States\nis steering the system toward the west-northwest (300/5 kt), and\nthis general motion should continue through the next couple of days.\nThe system is expected to move onshore along the northwestern Gulf\nCoast within the warning area on Tuesday, with the updated 24-h\nforecast point just offshore. There were no significant changes to\nthe track guidance this cycle, and the updated NHC forecast was\nadjusted slightly north of the previous prediction mainly due to the\nrepositioning of the center.\n \nThe tropical cyclone is fairly compact and has a small radius of\nmaximum wind. Although it only has about a day over the very warm\nGulf waters, strengthening is expected within a generally low shear\nenvironment. Since the small size of the system makes it more\nsusceptible to quicker intensity changes, the NHC intensity forecast\nhas been raised and now lies above almost all of the intensity\nguidance, including HCCA and IVCN. The legacy hurricane regional\nmodels (HWRF/HMON) show even more strengthening than is forecast\nhere. While this does not appear to be the most likely scenario,\ninterests in the warning area are reminded to closely monitor the\nlatest forecast updates.\n \n \nKey Messages:\n \n1. The system is expected to bring tropical storm conditions to\nportions of the Upper Texas and southwestern Louisiana coasts on\nTuesday. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect from Port Bolivar,\nTexas, to the Vermilion/Iberia Parish Line, Louisiana.\n \n2. Heavy rain will impact parts of the Upper Texas coast through\neast-central Texas into far Southwest Louisiana Tuesday and\nWednesday as the system tracks inland. Flash flooding is likely\nacross this region, especially in urban areas. River flooding may\nalso be possible.\n \n3. A Storm Surge Watch has been issued from High Island, Texas, to \nthe Vermilion/Cameron Parish Line, Louisiana. Peak values of up to \n4 feet above ground level are possible within the watch area.\n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  31/2100Z 28.2N  91.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 12H  01/0600Z 28.8N  92.4W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 24H  01/1800Z 29.6N  93.8W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 36H  02/0600Z 30.6N  95.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND\n 48H  02/1800Z 31.6N  96.1W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND\n 60H  03/0600Z...DISSIPATED\n \n"}