{"id": "1206316030129307651", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-08-31T21:00:00Z", "msg": "476\nWTPZ41 KNHC 312040\nTCDEP1\n \nHurricane Karina Discussion Number  18\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP112026\n1100 AM HST Mon Aug 31 2026\n \nThis morning's visible and enhanced infrared imagery indicate\nKarina's cloud pattern, particularly in the northwestern part of the\neyewall, has deteriorated over the last several hours. The lastest\nTAFB Dvorak intensity estimate has decreased from the previous\nclassification, and the CMISS objective satellite intensity\nestimates range from 110 to 115 kt. Therefore, the initial\nintensity has been lowered to 115 kt for this advisory.\n \nKarina's initial motion is estimated to be west-northwestward, or \n285/8 kt. A narrow subtropical mid-level ridge anchored north of the \ncyclone should steer the hurricane in this general heading through \nthe forecast period. Only slight adjustments were made to the NHC \nofficial forecast which is based on a blend of the HCCA and the \nGDMI aids. \n \nThe environmental conditions should remain favorable for the short \nterm, and slight intensity fluctuations are possible while Karina's \ninner core continues to experience structural changes. Through the \nremaining forecast period, a weakening trend is expected to occur \nwhile Karina moves into a drier, more stable air mass and traverses \ncooler oceanic temperatures. The NHC intensity forecast remains \nslightly above the skilled intensity models, and lies close to \nthe NOAA HCCA consensus.\n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  31/2100Z 17.5N 125.8W  115 KT 130 MPH\n 12H  01/0600Z 17.7N 127.2W  115 KT 130 MPH\n 24H  01/1800Z 18.1N 129.2W  110 KT 125 MPH\n 36H  02/0600Z 18.5N 131.2W  105 KT 120 MPH\n 48H  02/1800Z 18.9N 133.1W  100 KT 115 MPH\n 60H  03/0600Z 19.3N 135.0W   95 KT 110 MPH\n 72H  03/1800Z 19.6N 136.8W   90 KT 105 MPH\n 96H  04/1800Z 20.3N 140.7W   80 KT  90 MPH\n120H  05/1800Z 21.5N 144.1W   70 KT  80 MPH\n \n"}