{"id": "1206315742074830851", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-08-31T21:00:00Z", "msg": "450\nWTPA44 PHFO 312039\nTCDCP4\n \nTropical Storm Lowell Discussion Number  17\nNWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP122026\nIssued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n1100 AM HST Mon Aug 31 2026\n \nModerate easterly shear is still having some affect on Lowell.  \nAlthough a 31/1047Z AMSR2 pass and a 31/1459Z GPMI pass suggest that \nthe internal structure of the convection is becoming better \norganized around the center, the shear needs to abate just a bit \nmore, in order for the low- and mid-level centers to better align \nvertically, before the cyclone can strengthen significantly.  The \nlatest subjective Dvorak estimates from PHFO and JTWC range from \n45-65 kt, and objective estimates have been ranging from 45-50 kt.  \nThe initial intensity is held at 55 kt based on a blend of the \nintensity estimates.\n \nThe initial motion is just south of due west, or 265 degrees at 11 \nkt.  A mid-level ridge north of Lowell will be the primary steering \nmechanism for the next few days.  Lowell should move generally \nwestward to west-northwestward during that time.  By day 4 and 5, \nLowell could gain some latitude as it feels some pull from a mid- to \nupper-level trough located well to its north.  The HFIP Corrected \nConsensus (HCCA) and Google DeepMind ensemble (GDMI) are the fastest \nand farthest south models. The latest NHC forecast track is nearly \nidentical to the previous forecast for the first 72 hours, and then \nis slightly to the left of the previous track at days 4-5.  The \nlatest NHC forecast lies in between the TVCN simple consensus, which \nis a bit slower and to the right, and the HCCA, which is faster and \nto the left.\n\nSHIPS and UW-CIMSS vertical wind shear analyses indicate that the \neasterly wind shear is starting to decrease, and is likely around \n10 kt now.  Satellite imagery suggests that it may take a little \nmore time for the core of Lowell to be ready to begin intensifying \nmore quickly.  The HAFS models, as well as the HWRF and HMON all \nforecast the cyclone to become a major hurricane over the next 2 \ndays, so no significant change has been made to the NHC intensity \nforecast.  The shear is expected to be weak throughout the next 5 \ndays and water temperatures will remain warm along Lowell's path, \nso the forecast calls for Lowell to maintain its strength through \nday 5 as a major hurricane.  The intensity forecast remains between \nthe middle and higher end of the intensity guidance envelope.\n \n \nKey Messages:\n \n1. Lowell is forecast to move generally westward and could be in the\nvicinity of the Hawaiian Islands late this week or this weekend. \nInterests in Hawaii should monitor the progress of this storm.\n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  31/2100Z 12.9N 146.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 12H  01/0600Z 13.0N 147.9W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 24H  01/1800Z 13.3N 149.7W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 36H  02/0600Z 13.5N 151.6W   95 KT 110 MPH\n 48H  02/1800Z 13.7N 153.5W  105 KT 120 MPH\n 60H  03/0600Z 14.1N 155.4W  105 KT 120 MPH\n 72H  03/1800Z 14.4N 157.3W  105 KT 120 MPH\n 96H  04/1800Z 14.9N 160.2W  105 KT 120 MPH\n120H  05/1800Z 15.3N 162.5W  105 KT 120 MPH\n \n"}