{"msg": "719\nAXNT20 KNHC 311616\nTWDAT \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n1815 UTC Mon Aug 31 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America\nGulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South\nAmerica, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the\nEquator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite\nimagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through \n1500 UTC.\n...SPECIAL FEATURES...\nPotential Tropical Cyclone Five: Potential Tropical Cyclone Five \nis centered near 27.8N 91.0W at 31/1500 UTC or 110 nm S of Morgan \nCity Louisiana, moving WNW at 4 kt. Estimated minimum central \npressure is 1013 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with \ngusts to 40 kt. Rough seas are building, mainly to the north of \nthe center. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is \npresent north of 26N and between 88W and 92W. A continued slow\nwest-northwest motion is expected for the next day or two, and the\nsystem is forecast to reach the northwestern Gulf coast Tue.\nStrengthening is forecast and the system is forecast to become a\ntropical storm by tonight. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS \nFORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - \nhttps://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Five \nNHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov \nfor more details. \n...TROPICAL WAVES...\nAn eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 25W, south of 20N,\nmoving westward at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is\nnoted from 06N to 11N between 20W and 30W. \nA central Atlantic tropical wave is along 46W, south of 20N,\nmoving westward at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is \npresent from 08N to 16N and between 39W and 49W.\nA central Caribbean tropical wave is along 76W, south of 17N,\nmoving westward at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection has\ndeveloped S of 12N between 74W and 77W. \nThe tropical wave previously in the western Caribbean has moved\ninland into Central America.\n...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...\nThe monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of\nSenegal near 14N17W and continues southwestward to 10N41W. The \nITCZ extends from 10N47W to 09N61W. Convection near these features\nis primarily associated with the eastern Atlantic tropical wave,\ndescribed above. \n \n...GULF OF AMERICA...\nPlease refer to the Special Features section for information on\nPotential Tropical Cyclone Five.\nAway from this feature, weak high pressure dominates, supporting\ngentle or weaker winds and slight seas. \nFor the forecast, Potential Tropical Cyclone Five will move to \nnear 28.3N 91.8W this evening with maximum sustained winds 35 kt \ngusts 45 kt, to near 29.1N 93.2W Tue morning with maximum \nsustained winds 40 kt gusts 50 kt and inland to near 29.9N 94.4W \nTue evening, to near 31.1N 95.5W Wed morning and dissipate Wed \nevening. Conditions will improve Tue. Away from this system, weak \nhigh pressure will prevail allowing for moderate or weaker winds \nand slight to moderate seas. \n...CARIBBEAN SEA...\nSee Tropical Waves section above for information about convection\nin the southwest basin. A westward-moving surface trough over\nHaiti is inducing scattered moderate convection for the offshore\nwaters of Hispaniola. \nThe pressure gradient between the subtropical ridge north of the \nbasin and lower pressure in the deep tropics is leading to \nmoderate to fresh trades across the central and eastern basin, \nwith locally strong winds offshore western Venezuela. Seas in this\nregion are 5 to 7 ft. Winds and seas are moderate in the SW \nCaribbean, with gentle trades and slight seas in the NW. \nFor the forecast, the surface trough currently over Haiti will\nimpact Cuba and the Bahamas Tue into Wed. Elsewhere across the \nbasin, the pressure gradient between the subtropical ridge and \nColombian low will continue to induce fresh to locally strong \neasterly trades and moderate to locally rough seas over the \ncentral and eastern Caribbean through the week, with moderate or \nweaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevailing for the \nremainder of the waters. \n...ATLANTIC OCEAN...\nSee Tropical Waves section above for information about convection\nsouth of 20N. Divergence aloft and plenty of moisture continue \nto produces scattered moderate convection N of 25N and E of 65W. A\nsurface trough along 62W, extending southward to 25N, is also \ninducing a more concentrated area of thunderstorms. Farther south,\nanother surface trough moving westward across Haiti extends \nnorthward to the Turks and Caicos, and is also generating \nscattered thunderstorms. A final area of convection is cluster \naround 28N48W, in association with a deep-layer trough.\nA zone of fresh trades is present from 65W to 75W S of 25N, where\nseas are 7 to 9 ft. Fresh to strong NNE winds are noted off the\nAfrican coast and near the Canary Islands, otherwise, mainly\nmoderate or weaker winds prevail through the basin, with moderate\nseas dominant. \nFor the forecast west of 55W, the surface trough currently over \nHaiti will impact Cuba and the Bahamas Tue into Wed, bringing \nsimilar conditions to waters S of 24N. Elsewhere, abundant \ntropical moisture and a deep-layer trough will aide in scattered \nthunderstorms W of 70W through Tue. To the east, the subtropical \nridge will dominate, supporting mainly moderate or weaker winds \nand moderate seas. \n", "title": "Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1206264175579922435", "issued": "2026-08-31T18:15:00Z", "wmo": "AXNT20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1206264175579922435"}