{"msg": "608\nAXPZ20 KNHC 311534\nTWDEP \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n1605 UTC Mon Aug 31 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from\n03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and\nfrom the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following\ninformation is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,\nradar, and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through\n1500 UTC.\n...SPECIAL FEATURES...\nHurricane Karina is centered near 17.4N 125.1W at 31/1500 UTC,\nmoving west at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 950\nmb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 120 kt with gusts to 145 kt\nPeak seas are around 35 ft. Numerous moderate to scattered \nstrong convection is noted from 15N-19N between 121W-129W. This \nmotion is expected to continue through the rest of today. A turn \ntoward the west-northwest is forecast on Tuesday. Karina is a \ncategory 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. \nFluctuations in intensity remain possible today, and a gradual \nweakening trend is expected to begin on Tuesday. Swells generated\nby Karina will affect portions of the coast of southwest Mexico \nand the Baja California Peninsula for the next couple of days and\nwill likely spread northward to southern California on Monday \nthrough midweek. These swells are likely to cause life-\nthreatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult \nproducts from your local weather office.\nPlease read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National\nHurricane Center at website - \nhttps://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest \nKarina NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at \nwww.hurricanes.gov for more details. \nWell Offshore of Southwestern Mexico (EP95):\nA 1008 mb low at 12N109W, designated Invest EP95, is expected to\ndevelop into a tropical cyclone later today or tonight while it\nmoves steadily toward the northwest. Numerous moderate and\nscattered strong convection is occurring from 06N-13N between \n105W-112W. Peak winds are currently 30 kt and largest seas 11 ft.\nBecause of this system, a Storm Warning has been issued for the \nzone near the Revillagigedo Islands. Highest winds and largest \nseas should occur Wed and Thu. While the core of the system may \nstay outside of the zones west of Baja California Sur, fresh to \nnear gale conditions and large swell are likely to occur in these\noffshore zones on Thu and Fri. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS \nFORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - \nhttps://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest NHC \nTropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details.\n \n...TROPICAL WAVES...\nThe axis of a tropical wave is along 109W from 05N-20N with a \n1008 mb low at 12N109W, moving west around 10 kt. This system is\nalso denoted Invest EP95. Numerous moderate and scattered strong\nconvection is occurring from 06N-13N between 105W-112W. \nAnother tropical wave axis is along 94W from 05N-15N, moving \nwest around 15 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong \nconvection is noted from 05N-16N between 89W-98W.\n...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...\nThe monsoon trough extends from coastal Costa Rica at 09N83W to\n12N120W. After ending southeast of Karina, the monsoon trough\nresumes again from 10N129W to 11N140W. Numerous moderate and\nscattered strong convection is occurring from 06N-13N between \n105W-112W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is \nnoted from 05N-16N between 89W-98W, north of 05N east of 85W,\nfrom 04N-12N between 113W-128W, and from 03N-08N west of 138W.\n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...\nPlease see the Special Features section for more information on \nInvest EP95.\nA 1008 mb low at 12N109W, designated Invest EP95, has peak winds\nover the Mexican Offshore Zones are 25 kt and seas to 9 ft. \nElsewhere, winds are moderate or weaker with seas 5-7 ft over \nPacific waters and 1-3 ft over the Gulf of California. Scattered\nmoderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 05N-16N \nbetween 89W-98W.\nFor the forecast, Invest EP95 is expected to develop into a \ntropical cyclone later today or tonight while it moves steadily \ntoward the northwest. Because of this system, a Storm Warning has\nbeen issued for the zone near the Revillagigedo Islands. Highest\nwinds and largest seas should occur Wed and Thu. While the core \nof the system may stay outside of the zones west of Baja \nCalifornia Sur, fresh to near gale conditions and large swell are\nlikely to occur in these offshore zones on Thu and Fri. \nElsewhere, fresh S to SE winds may occur in the northern Gulf of \nCalifornia on Thu and Fri. \n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, \nAND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...\nWinds are moderate or weaker over forecast waters with seas 5-6\nft. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is \nnoted north of 05N east of 85W.\nFor the forecast, winds and seas should remain quiescent for the\nnext several days.\n...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...\nPlease see the Special Features section for more information\nabout Hurricane Karina, and Invest EP95.\nAside from Karina and Invest EP95, winds across the High Seas are\nmoderate to locally strong with seas 5-7 ft.\nFor the forecast, Karina will move to 17.6N 126.4W this evening,\n18.0N 128.4W Tue morning, 18.4N 130.3W Tue evening, 18.8N 132.3W\nWed morning, 19.2N 134.2W Wed evening, and 19.5N 136.1W Thu \nmorning. Karina will change little in intensity as it moves to \n20.2N 139.9W early Fri. Invest EP95 is expected to develop into a\ntropical cyclone later today or tonight while it moves steadily \ntoward the northwest. Because of this system, Storm Warnings has \nbeen issued for Storm Warnings have been issued for the High Seas\nwaters adjacent to the Mexico Offshore zone. The system should \ncontinue moving northwestward reaching around 20N120W by Fri \nnight.\n", "title": "Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1206255795607109635", "issued": "2026-08-31T16:05:00Z", "wmo": "AXPZ20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1206255795607109635"}