{"id": "1206248376399036419", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-08-31T15:00:00Z", "msg": "641\nWTNT45 KNHC 311456\nTCDAT5\n \nPotential Tropical Cyclone Five Discussion Number   1\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052026\n1000 AM CDT Mon Aug 31 2026\n \nThe disturbance (AL97) that the NHC has been tracking over the\nnorthern Gulf of America continues to produce a small area of\nshowers and thunderstorms with modest signs of organization.\nOvernight scatterometer data indicated the circulation lacked\ndefinition on the western side, and recent surface observations and\ndata from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters suggest the center is\nstill elongated and ill defined. However, given the expectation that\nthe system will become a tropical cyclone, and the risk of tropical\nstorm conditions for portions of the northwestern Gulf Coast, we\nare initiating advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Five. The\ninitial intensity is set at a possibly generous 30 kt based on the\novernight scatterometer data.\n \nThe initial motion is uncertain given the system is still in its \nformative stage, but our best estimate is west-northwestward (285/4 \nkt). The track models agree that the system should continue \nwest-northwestward during the next day or so and approach the Upper \nTexas and southwestern Louisiana coast within the warning area on \nTuesday. The official NHC track forecast lies very near the HFIP \ncorrected consensus (HCCA), near the center of the guidance \nenvelope. A 48-h post-tropical forecast point is shown for \ncontinuity, but the system will likely be dissipated by that time.\n \nThe small system is located over SSTs greater than 30 deg C, and the \ndeep-layer shear appears fairly weak as diagnosed from the SHIPS \nguidance. Some strengthening is expected before the system reaches \nthe coast on Tuesday, as long as it is able to develop a more \ncohesive tropical cyclone structure. Since the center is predicted \nto move onshore between 24-36 h, additional strengthening could \noccur between those forecast points that cannot be reflected in the \nofficial forecast. Given the anticipated small size of the system, \nit could be prone to quicker intensity changes, so additional \nstrengthening beyond what is shown cannot be ruled out. The NHC \nintensity forecast lies at the top of the latest guidance.\n \n \nKey Messages:\n \n1. Potential Tropical Cyclone Five is expected to bring tropical\nstorm conditions to portions of the Upper Texas and southwestern\nLouisiana coasts on Tuesday. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect\nfrom Port Bolivar, Texas, to the Vermilion/Cameron Parish Line,\nLouisiana.\n \n2. Heavy rain will impact parts of the Upper Texas coast through\neast-central Texas into far southwestern Louisiana Tuesday and\nWednesday as the system tracks inland. Flash flooding is likely\nacross this region, especially in urban areas.\n \n3. Minor to moderate coastal flooding is possible along the Upper\nTexas and southwestern Louisiana coasts.\n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  31/1500Z 27.8N  91.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE\n 12H  01/0000Z 28.3N  91.8W   35 KT  40 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE\n 24H  01/1200Z 29.1N  93.2W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 36H  02/0000Z 29.9N  94.4W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND\n 48H  02/1200Z 31.1N  95.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND\n 60H  03/0000Z...DISSIPATED\n \n"}