{"id": "1206248291081125891", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-08-31T15:00:00Z", "msg": "633\nWTPZ41 KNHC 311455\nTCDEP1\n \nHurricane Karina Discussion Number  17\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP112026\n500 AM HST Mon Aug 31 2026\n \nConventional satellite imagery shows that the inner core structure\nof Karina has become a little less defined.  The cloud tops in\nthe northwestern portion of the eyewall have warmed to around -60\nC, and the latest TAFB Dvorak satellite intensity estimate is\nT5.5/102 kt.  The CMISS satellite intensity objective techniques \nrange from 115 to 129 kt.  Based on these data, the initial\nintensity remains at 120 kt.\n \nKarina continues to move generally westward, estimated at 275\ndegrees at 7 kt. A narrow but extensive mid-level ridge is parked\nto the north of the hurricane, and this feature will likely remain\nthe dominant steering impact on Karina over the next several days.\nToward the end of the forecast period, the original ridge becomes\neroded by a mid-latitude trough digging into the western US coast,\nbut a more meridionally oriented ridge takes its place to the\nnorthwest of Karina, which should act to gradually slow its forward\nmotion.  The current NHC forecast track has been adjusted\nslightly to the south of the previous track based on the guidance\nfrom the HFIP Corrected Consensus Approach (HCCA) and Google\nDeepMind (GDMI) guidance.\n \nWhile environmental conditions should remain favorable in the short\nterm, the hurricane could experience some intensity fluctuations due\nto inner-core changes.  Karina may develop annular characteristics\nthat could help reduce the rate of weakening the cyclone is forecast\nto undergo. The current SHIPS statistical intensity models indicate\nthat relative humidity beyond 72 h will drop below 40%, \nConsequently, abundant dry, stable air will impact the hurricane.   \nOnce Karina moves over cooler ocean waters past 96 h, and more dry \nair is pulled into the hurricane's inner core, the rate of \nweakening could increase at a faster rate indicated in the \nofficial forecast which is close to the HCCA corrected consensus.\n \nKarina's wind radii have been adjusted based on 0553 UTC METOP-B/C\nASCAT overpasses, and 0757 UTC OSCAT data.\n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  31/1500Z 17.4N 125.1W  120 KT 140 MPH\n 12H  01/0000Z 17.6N 126.4W  120 KT 140 MPH\n 24H  01/1200Z 18.0N 128.4W  115 KT 130 MPH\n 36H  02/0000Z 18.4N 130.3W  110 KT 125 MPH\n 48H  02/1200Z 18.8N 132.3W  100 KT 115 MPH\n 60H  03/0000Z 19.2N 134.2W   95 KT 110 MPH\n 72H  03/1200Z 19.5N 136.1W   90 KT 105 MPH\n 96H  04/1200Z 20.2N 139.9W   80 KT  90 MPH\n120H  05/1200Z 21.1N 143.7W   70 KT  80 MPH\n \n"}