{"msg": "730\nAXNT20 KNHC 311009\nTWDAT \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n1215 UTC Mon Aug 31 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America\nGulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South\nAmerica, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the\nEquator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite\nimagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through \n0955 UTC.\n...SPECIAL FEATURES...\nNorthern Gulf of America (AL97): An area of low pressure (Invest\nAL97) is near 27N90W over the northern Gulf of America, located \nmore than 85 nm south of the coast of southern Louisiana. Numerous\nmoderate to isolated strong convection is present north of 26N and\nbetween 88W and 92W. Earlier satellite wind data indicated that \nthe circulation has not become much better defined from yesterday\nwhile producing 25 to 30 kt winds. Regardless, additional development\nis anticipated as the low moves slowly west-northwestward, and a \nshort-lived tropical depression or tropical storm is likely to \nform before the system reaches the Upper Texas or southwestern \nLouisiana coasts by tonight or Tuesday morning. Interests along \nthe southwest Louisiana and Upper Texas coasts should monitor the \nprogress of this system, as tropical storm watches or warnings \ncould be required for portions of the area later today. Regardless\nof development, this system is expected to bring locally heavy \nrainfall to portions of the Upper Texas and southwestern Louisiana\ncoasts during the next several days. An Air Force Reserve \nreconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system \nlater this morning. This system has a high chance of tropical \ncyclone formation through 7 days.\nPlease, refer to the HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National\nHurricane Center at website - \nhttps://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest NHC \nTropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details.\n...TROPICAL WAVES...\nAn eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 23W, south of 20N,\nmoving westward at 10-15 kt. A few showers are noted near the\ntrough axis.\nA central Atlantic tropical wave is along 43W, south of 20N,\nmoving westward at 15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong\nconvection is present from 08N to 16N and between 37W and 49W.\nA central Caribbean tropical wave is along 74W, south of 17N,\nmoving westward at 15-20 kt. No significant convection is observed\nover the ocean.\nA western Caribbean tropical wave is along 84W, south of 17N,\nmoving westward at 15-20 kt. Scattered showers and isolated\nthunderstorms are occurring south in eastern Honduras and\nNicaragua and nearby waters.\n...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...\nThe monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of\nSenegal near 14N17W and continues southwestward to 10N37W. The\nITCZ extends from 10N37W to 10N44W and then from 10N46W to 09N61W.\nScattered moderate to isolated strong convection is evident from\n04N to 14N and east of 40W.\n \n...GULF OF AMERICA...\nPlease refer to the Special Features section for information on\nInvest AL97 over the north-central Gulf waters.\nAway from the disturbance in the north-central Gulf, a weak high\npressure dominates the basin supporting moderate or weaker winds\nand slight to locally moderate seas.\nFor the forecast, an area of low pressure...Invest AL97...located\nnear 27N90W over the northern Gulf waters is producing scattered \nshowers and isolated thunderstorms. The system has a high chance \nof tropical development over the next couple of days as it moves \ntoward the NW Gulf coast. Regardless, is expected to bring locally\nheavy rainfall to portions of the Upper Texas and southwestern \nLouisiana coasts during the next several days. Near gale-force \nwinds and rough seas are forecast to develop in the nearshore \nwaters this afternoon into tonight. Conditions will improve Tue. \nAway from this system, weak high pressure will prevail allowing \nfor moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas. \n...CARIBBEAN SEA...\nA surface trough is moving across eastern Hispaniola producing\nscattered showers and isolated thunderstorms with some storms\nextending eastward to the Leeward Islands. Strong storms are also\nnoted in the SW Caribbean off Panama and Colombia. The pressure\ngradient between the subtropical ridge north of the islands and\nlower pressures in the deep tropics has slacken a bit as the\nremnants of Dolly pass over the Greater Antilles. Moderate to\nlocally strong easterly winds and seas of 4-8 ft are occurring in\nthe central and eastern Caribbean, including the Windward Passage.\nLight to gentle winds and slight seas prevail elsewhere.\nFor the forecast, a surface trough located across eastern Hispaniola is\nproducing a few showers and isolated thunderstorms, along with strong\nwinds and rough seas. This trough will move WNW and continue to \nimpact Hispaniola today, then Cuba and the Bahamas Tue into Wed.\nLocalized heavy rainfall is possible, especially in the\nmountainousterrain. Elsewhere across the basin, the pressure \ngradient between the subtropical ridge and Colombian low will \ncontinue to force fresh to locally strong easterly trades and \nmoderate to locally rough seas over the central and eastern \nCaribbean through the week, with moderate or weaker winds and \nslight to moderate seas prevailing for the remainder of the \nwaters. \n...ATLANTIC OCEAN...\nDivergence aloft and plenty of moisture continue to produce\nscattered showers and isolated thunderstorms between Bermuda and\nthe NW Bahamas and Florida. Farther south, a surface trough moving\nacross eastern Hispaniola is generating scattered showers and some\nthunderstorms over the waters south of 24N and between the SE\nBahamas and 65W. Moderate to locally strong SE winds and rough\nseas are occurring south of 26N and between 62W and the Bahamas. \nScattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are also noted in the\nnorth-central Atlantic due to an upper level low in the area. The\nrest of the tropical Atlantic is under the influence of a broad\nsubtropical ridge centered near 33N35W. Moderate to locally fresh\neasterly winds and moderate seas are found across much of the\nbasin.\nFor the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned surface trough \nlocated across eastern Hispaniola is producing a few showers and \nisolated thunderstorms, along with strong winds and rough seas. \nThis trough will move WNW and continue to impact Hispaniola today,\nthen Cuba and the Bahamas Tue into Wed, bringing similar \nconditions to waters S of 24N. Strong upper-level winds are \nexpected to prevent tropical development of this system over the \nnext day or two while it moves quickly westward to west-\nnorthwestward at 20 to 25 mph. Conditions could become more \nconducive for redevelopment by the middle of the week as the \nsystem reaches the southern Bahamas or Florida Straits. The\ndisturbance has a low chance of formation over the next 7 days. \nElsewhere, abundant tropical moisture and a deep- layer trough \nwill aide in scattered thunderstorms W of 70W through Tue. To the \neast, the subtropical ridge will dominate, supporting mainly \nmoderate or weaker winds and moderate seas. \n", "title": "Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1206191914218094595", "issued": "2026-08-31T12:15:00Z", "wmo": "AXNT20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1206191914218094595"}