{"msg": "279\nAXPZ20 KNHC 310949\nTWDEP\nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n1005 UTC Mon Aug 31 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from\n03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and\nfrom the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following\ninformation is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,\nradar, and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through\n0940 UTC.\n...SPECIAL FEATURES...\nHurricane Karina is centered near 17.2N 124.4W at 31/0900 UTC,\nmoving west at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 942\nmb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 125 kt with gusts to 150 kt. \nPeak seas are around 28 ft. Numerous moderate to scattered \nstrong convection is noted from 14N to 20N between 120W and \n128W. A turn toward the west-northwest is forecast to begin on \nTuesday. Karina is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson \nHurricane Wind Scale. Additional strengthening is possible on \nMonday, followed by fluctuations in intensity through the middle \npart of this week. Swells generated by Karina will affect \nportions of the coast of southwest Mexico and the Baja California\nPeninsula for the next couple of days and will likely spread \nnorthward to southern California on Monday through midweek. These\nswells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current\nconditions. Please consult products from your local weather \noffice. \nPlease read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National\nHurricane Center at website - \nhttps://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest \nKarina NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at \nwww.hurricanes.gov for more details. \nWell Offshore of Southwestern Mexico (EP95):\nShowers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low\npressure located well offshore of southwestern Mexico remain\ndisorganized. Numerous to scattered moderate to strong convection\nis from 04N to 15N between 101W and 118W. However, environmental\nconditions appear conducive for gradual development, and a \ntropical depression is expected to form within the next couple of\ndays while the system continues to move west- northwestward to \nnorthwestward at 10 to 15 kt. This system has a high chance of \ntropical cyclone formation through 48 hours, and also through 7 \ndays. Regardless of development, gale- force winds will be likely\nfor the Revillagigedo Islands, the outer Baja California Sur \noffshores S of Cabo San Lazaro as well as the Baja California \noffshore adjacent waters Tue night through late Fri. Refer to the\nlatest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for \nmore details.\n \n...TROPICAL WAVES...\nThe axis of a tropical wave is along 92W north of 05N, moving \nwest at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is \nnoted N of 03N between 88W and 98W.\n...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...\nThe monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 10N100W to 14N116W,\nthen resumes SW of Karina near 12N130W to 11N139W. In addition \nto the convection associated with Karina, Invest EP95 and the \ntropical wave, scattered moderate to isolated strong convection \nis evident N of 03N E of 88W, and from 00N to 10N W of 120W.  \n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...\nPlease see the Special Features section for more information on \nInvest EP95.\nModerate to fresh N gap winds are now blowing across Tehuantepec\nregion and downwind to near 14N. Moderate to fresh southerly \nwinds and slight seas dominate the Gulf of California, except the\ncentral part of the Gulf where fresh to strong winds are noted. \nGentle to moderate winds and moderate seas are present elsewhere.\nFor the forecast, fresh to strong SE winds and rough seas \nassociated with Invest EP95 are forecast to affect the outer SW \nMexican offshores W of 101W today through Wed, with these \nconditions shiftting to the Baja California Sur offshores the \nremainder forecast period. Environmental conditions appear \nconducive for gradual development of this system, and a tropical \ndepression is expected to form within the next couple of days \nwhile the system continues to move west-northwestward to \nnorthwestward. Regardless of development, gale-force winds will \nbe likely for the Revillagigedo Islands and the outer Baja \nCalifornia Sur offshores S of Cabo San Lazaro Tue night through \nlate Fri.\n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, \nAND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...\nModerate easterly gap winds persist in the Gulf of Papagayo and \ndownwind to near 11N88W, with 5 ft seas. Gentle to moderate winds\nand 4 to 6 ft seas are noted elsewhere. \nFor the forecast, moderate to locally fresh NE to E gap winds \nwill continue to pulse in the Gulf of Papagayo area through Fri \nnight. Moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas are \nforecast elsewhere through the forecast period. \n...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...\nPlease see the Special Features section for more information\nabout Hurricane Karina, and Invest EP95.\nHurricane Karina is near 17.2N 124.4W at 2 AM PDT, and is moving\nwest at 8 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 125 kt with gusts to\n150 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 942 mb. Elsewhere, \nmainly moderate or weaker winds dominate the remainder of the \nopen waters both north and south of the monsoon trough away from \nKarina, EP95 and the aforementioned trough. Rough seas generated \nby Karina cover the waters from 11N to 24N between 115W and 128W.\nSeas are mainly moderate across the remainder of the open \nwaters.\nFor the forecast, Karina will move to 17.4N 125.8W this \nafternoon, 17.7N 127.6W Tue morning, 18.1N 129.6W Tue afternoon, \n18.6N 131.7W Wed morning, 19.1N 133.6W Wed afternoon, and 19.4N \n135.7W Thu morning. Karina will change little in intensity as it \nmoves near 20.0N 139.5W early Fri. Looking ahead, environmental \nconditions appear conducive for gradual development of EP95, and\na tropical depression is expected to form within the next couple\nof days while the system continues to move west-northwestward to\nnorthwestward. Regardless of development, gale-force winds will \nbe likely for the Revillagigedo Islands, the outer Baja \nCalifornia Sur offshores S of Cabo San Lazaro as well as the Baja\nCalifornia offshore adjacent waters Tue night through late Fri.\n", "title": "Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1206188027682750467", "issued": "2026-08-31T10:05:00Z", "wmo": "AXPZ20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1206188027682750467"}