{"id": "1206175777636450307", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-08-31T09:00:00Z", "msg": "605\nWTPZ41 KNHC 310847\nTCDEP1\n \nHurricane Karina Discussion Number  16\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP112026\n1100 PM HST Sun Aug 30 2026\n\nKarina has continued to rapidly intensify. Since the previous \nadvisory, cold cloud top temperatures below -75 C wrapped back \naround northern side of the hurricane while the eye is making an \nattempt to clear out some. In response, the objective UW-CIMSS ADT \nintensity estimate, after plateauing earlier, has begun to rise \nagain, with the latest value at T6.6/129 kt. It is worth noting the \nmajority of the other objective estimates are 6-12 h old, likely to \nto the lack of recent microwave imagery. The 06 UTC TAFB subjective \nDvorak estimate was constrained lower at CI 5.5/102 kt, though the \nData-T number was also 6.5/125 kt. The initial intensity will be \nset at 125 kt for this advisory, making Karina a formidable Category \n4 hurricane.  \n\nKarina continues to move off generally westward, estimated at 275 \ndegrees at 8 kt. A narrow but extensive mid-level ridge is parked to \nthe north of the hurricane, and this feature will likely remain the \ndominant steering impact on Karina over the next 3-5 days. Towards \nthe end of the forecast period, the original ridge becomes eroded by \na mid-latitude trough digging into the western US coast, but a more \nmeridional oriented ridge takes its place to the northwest of \nKarina, which should act to gradually slow its forward motion. Once \nagain there has been another leftward shift in the guidance, and the \nlatest NHC track forecast has also been adjusted in that direction, \nsplitting the difference between the latest HFIP Corrected Consensus \nApproach (HCCA) and Google DeepMind (GDMI) guidance. \n\nEnvironmental conditions over Karina remain favorable, and there is \nstill some time for the hurricane to intensify a bit more in the \nshort-term. However, it also is possible the system will soon start \nto undergo inner-core fluctuations like eyewall replacement cycles \n(ERCs), though there has not been any recent microwave imagery to \ndetermine if such an event is preparing to take place. Another \nfactor to consider is that beyond the next 24-36 h, Karina might \nfind itself in environmental conditions favorable for the hurricane \nto develop Annular characteristics, which could slow its rate of \nweakening despite the storm moving over gradually cooling \nsea-surface temperatures. Thus, the NHC intensity forecast is on the \nhigh side of the guidance envelope for a large portion of the \nforecast period, sticking pretty close to the latest HCCA intensity \nforecast. A somewhat faster rate of weakening is possible by the end \nof the forecast period when Karina is forecast to cross the 26 C \nsea-surface temperature isotherm. \n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  31/0900Z 17.2N 124.4W  125 KT 145 MPH\n 12H  31/1800Z 17.4N 125.8W  130 KT 150 MPH\n 24H  01/0600Z 17.7N 127.6W  125 KT 145 MPH\n 36H  01/1800Z 18.1N 129.6W  115 KT 130 MPH\n 48H  02/0600Z 18.6N 131.7W  110 KT 125 MPH\n 60H  02/1800Z 19.1N 133.6W  105 KT 120 MPH\n 72H  03/0600Z 19.4N 135.7W  100 KT 115 MPH\n 96H  04/0600Z 20.0N 139.5W   90 KT 105 MPH\n120H  05/0600Z 21.0N 143.5W   75 KT  85 MPH\n \n"}