{"id": "1206173411514548227", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-08-31T09:00:00Z", "msg": "251\nWTPA44 PHFO 310835\nTCDCP4\n \nTropical Storm Lowell Discussion Number  15\nNWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP122026\nIssued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n1100 PM HST Sun Aug 30 2026\n \nSatellite imagery indicates that the convective coverage associated \nwith Lowell has changed little over the past several hours. \nPersistent easterly vertical wind shear continues to displace the \nbulk of the deep convection over and west of the low-level \ncirculation center. Subjective Dvorak intensity estimates from HFO \nand JTWC are 55 kt and 45 kt, respectively, while the latest \nobjective intensity estimates range from about 40 to 50 kt. A blend \nof these estimates supports increasing the initial intensity to 50 \nkt.\n\nThe initial motion is 270/10 kt. A low- to mid-level ridge north of \nthe cyclone should remain the primary steering influence during the \nnext couple of days, resulting in a continued westward motion. The \ntrack guidance remains in relatively good agreement through about 60 \nh. Thereafter, considerable cross-track spread persists among the \nguidance as Lowell gradually slows and begins to turn \nwest-northwestward. Some of this spread may be due to the potential \ninfluence of Hurricane Karina to the northeast on Lowell's steering \nflow, as well as differences in how the models depict a mid- to \nupper-level trough northwest of the Hawaiian Islands and the \nresulting weakness in the subtropical ridge. The HCCA and Google \nDeepMind ensemble mean remain along the southern side of the \nguidance envelope through day 5, while several other models favor a \nmore northwestward track along the northern side of the guidance \nenvelope. The latest NHC track forecast is essentially an update of \nthe previous advisory and remains near the HCCA, Google DeepMind \nensemble mean, and simple consensus (TVCN).\n\nModerate easterly vertical wind shear continues to affect Lowell and \nshould temper the rate of strengthening in the short term. The shear \nis forecast to decrease during the next 12 to 24 h while the cyclone \nremains over warm waters, which should allow Lowell to become better \norganized and continue strengthening. A faster rate of \nintensification is forecast between 24 and 72 h as environmental \nconditions become more favorable. Thereafter, the intensity is \nforecast to level off around 96 h. The NHC intensity forecast is \nessentially an update of the previous forecast.\n\n \nKey Messages:\n \n1. Lowell is forecast to move generally westward and could be in the\nvicinity of the Hawaiian Islands late this week. Interests in Hawaii\nshould monitor the progress of this storm.\n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  31/0900Z 13.0N 144.2W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 12H  31/1800Z 13.0N 145.6W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 24H  01/0600Z 13.2N 147.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 36H  01/1800Z 13.4N 149.5W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 48H  02/0600Z 13.7N 151.6W   85 KT 100 MPH\n 60H  02/1800Z 14.0N 153.4W   90 KT 105 MPH\n 72H  03/0600Z 14.4N 155.5W   95 KT 110 MPH\n 96H  04/0600Z 15.1N 158.5W   90 KT 105 MPH\n120H  05/0600Z 15.6N 160.8W   90 KT 105 MPH\n \n"}