{"msg": "210\nAXNT20 KNHC 310426\nTWDAT \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n0615 UTC Mon Aug 31 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America\nGulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South\nAmerica, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the\nEquator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite\nimagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through \n0400 UTC.\n...SPECIAL FEATURES...\nNorthern Gulf of America (AL97):\nA 1012 mb low pressure system is located over the north-central\nGulf of America, south of the mouth of the Mississippi River, near\n28N 89.5W, and drifting westward near 5 kt. Scattered to numerous\nmoderate isolated strong convection is occurring within 90 nm of\nthis low. Satellite imagery and recent satellite wind data\nindicate that this system has become better organized since\nyesterday, 20 to 25 kt winds occurring across the NE semicircle. \nAdditional development is possible as the low moves slowly west- \nnorthwestward, and a short- lived tropical depression or tropical \nstorm could form before the system reaches the Upper Texas or \nsouthwestern Louisiana coasts Tuesday or Tuesday night. Interests \nalong the Louisiana and Upper Texas coasts should monitor the \nprogress of this system. Regardless of development, locally heavy \nrainfall is possible over portions of the Upper Texas or \nsouthwestern Louisiana coasts during the next couple of days. In \nanticipation of this intensification occurring, a Gale Warning has\nbeen issued. This system has a high chance of tropical cyclone \nformation through 7 days.\nNear Puerto Rico and Hispaniola (Remnants of Dolly):\nA strong tropical wave, the remnants of Tropical Storm Dolly, is\nproducing sporadic bursts of showers and thunderstorms from the\nMona Passage east and southeastward across portions of Puerto\nRico, the Virgin Islands, and the adjacent NE Caribbean and \nAtlantic waters to the northern Leeward Islands. Satellite data \nand surface observations indicate that there are no signs of a \nclosed surface circulation, and redevelopment is unlikely during \nthe next day or two while the wave moves westward to west- \nnorthwestward at about 20 kt. This system will bring locally heavy\nrains and gusty winds to portions of the Leeward Islands, the \nVirgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and Hispaniola over the next couple \nof days. Conditions may become more conducive for redevelopment by\nthe middle of the week as the system reaches the southeastern \nGulf of America. Currently, scattered to numerous moderate to \nstrong convection extends from the St Croix area southeastward to \nthe waters just W of the northern Leeward Islands. Strong winds 20\nto 30 kt accompany this wave, with seas to 8 to 11 ft across much\nof the nearby Atlantic waters, and 6 to 9 ft in the Caribbean \nPassages. Rainfall amounts and the location of the highest totals \nfrom this broad system will vary from island to island, as local \ntopography will enhance orographic lift and support the heaviest \nrainfall. Please refer to your local weather agency for specific \nrainfall forecasts for your local area. \nPlease, refer to the HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National\nHurricane Center at website - \nhttps://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest NHC \nTropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details.\n...TROPICAL WAVES...\nA tropical wave is moving away from the African coast, along 22W \nsouth of 20N, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Isolated shower \nactivity is near the wave axis.\nAnother Atlantic tropical is along 42W-43W, south of 21N, moving \nwestward at around 15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong \nconvection is noted from 07N to 15.5N between 38W and 47W.\nA strong tropical wave, the remnants of Tropical Storm Dolly,\nextends from the Atlantic near 22N66W south-southwestward through\nthe Mona Passage then southwestward to NW Venezuela. Scattered to\nnumerous strong convection is occurring ahead of the wave across\nnorthern Colombia. Please, see the Special Features section for \nmore details.\nAnother tropical is over the western Caribbean near 82W, south of\n19N, moving westward near 20 kt. The wave appears to enhance \nconvection over the SW Caribbean, south of 15N and west of 80W,\nespecially over northern Costa Rica and coastal sections of \nNicaragua.\n...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...\nThe monsoon trough enters the Atlantic from Gambia at 13N17W \nsouthwestward to 08.5N25W. The ITCZ begins near 10N27W and \nextends to 12.5N43W, then resumes at 10N46W and continues \nwestward to coastal Venezuela at 10N63W. Scattered moderate \nconvection is occurring from 08N to 11N east of 20W. Scattered\nmoderate isolated strong convection is noted from 04N to 09N \nbetween 26W and 38W and from 07N to 11N between 47W and 59W.\n \n...GULF OF AMERICA...\nScattered to numerous moderate isolated strong convection has\nbecome concentrated within 90 nm of a 1012 mb low pressure (AL97)\nsouth of the mouth of the Mississippi River, near 28N 89.5W. Fresh\nto strong E to SE winds are occurring across the N and E portions\nof this low, where seas are to 5 ft. Scattered weak to moderate\nshowers dot the eastern portions of the Gulf, and have diminished\nin intensity and coverage in recent hours. Elsewhere, a weak\npressure gradient prevails across the basin, producing moderate \nor weaker winds with seas 1 to 3 ft.\nFor the forecast, Invest AL97 has become better defined and \ncontinued gradual development is expected as the low moves slowly \nwest- northwestward, and a short-lived tropical depression or \ntropical storm is likely to form before the system reaches the \nUpper Texas or southwestern Louisiana coasts on Tuesday or Tuesday\nnight. A Gale Warning has been issued in anticipation of this\nintensification. There is a high chance of tropical formation of \nthis low pressure over the next 48 hours. Elsewhere, weak high \npressure will persist through the forecast period, sustaining \nmoderate or weaker winds and slight seas. Winds will pulse to \nfresh with moderate seas off western Yucatan during the evenings \ndue to a diurnal surface trough moving west off the Yucatan \nPeninsula each night. \n...CARIBBEAN SEA...\nPlease refer to the Special Features section above for rainfall\ninformation associated with a strong tropical wave moving across \nthe NE Caribbean. \nThe pressure gradient between a weak Bermuda High north of the \narea and a 1008 mb Colombian Low is forcing fresh to strong \ntrades over the south-central Caribbean south of 14N with seas of\n5 to 8 ft. Moderate to fresh winds have shifted across the SE\nCaribbean where seas are 4 to 5 ft. Elsewhere, winds are moderate\nor weaker with seas 5 ft or less.\nFor the forecast, as previously mentioned, a strong tropical wave\nmoving across the eastern Caribbean and adjacent Atlantic waters will\nmove westward and impact Hispaniola tonight and Monday, then \neastern Cuba into Tue with strong gusty winds, rough seas and \nperiods of heavy rainfall. Elsewhere across the basin, the \npressure gradient between the subtropical ridge and Colombian low \nwill continue to force fresh to locally strong easterly trades and\nmoderate to locally rough seas over the central and eastern \nCaribbean through the week, with moderate or weaker winds and \nslight to moderate seas prevailing for the remainder of the \nwaters. \n...ATLANTIC OCEAN...\nPlease refer to the Special Features section above for information\nabout the strong tropical wave, remnants of Dolly, moving across\nthe NE Caribbean.\nThe Bermuda-Azores High extends as a ridge along 34N with a 1027 \nmb center at 34N34W extending westward to 75W. The pressure \ngradient between the ridge and lower pressure near the ITCZ and \nmonsoon trough is forcing only moderate to locally fresh trades S\nof 24N between 30W and 60W, with seas of 4 to 7 ft. Scattered \nshowers and thunderstorms continue across the waters N of 24N and\nW of 60W, including the NW Bahamas, as a middle level trough \ncontinues across this area.\nFor the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned remnants of Dolly \nwill move W to W-NW and impact Hispaniola tonight and Monday, \nthen eastern Cuba into Tue, bringing strong gusty winds, rough seas \nand periods of heavy rainfall to waters S of 23N through early \nthis week. Elsewhere, abundant tropical moisture and a deep-layer \ntrough will aide in scattered thunderstorms W of 70W through Tue. \nTo the east, the subtropical ridge will dominate, supporting \nmainly moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas. \n", "title": "Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1206124482987360259", "issued": "2026-08-31T06:15:00Z", "wmo": "AXNT20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1206124482987360259"}