{"msg": "770\nAXPZ20 KNHC 310407\nTWDEP \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n0405 UTC Mon Aug 31 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from\n03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and\nfrom the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following\ninformation is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,\nradar, and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through\n0350 UTC.\n...SPECIAL FEATURES...\nHurricane Karina is centered near 17.1N 123.8W at 31/0300 UTC,\nmoving west at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 954\nmb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 110 kt with gusts to 135 kt. \nPeak seas are around 36 ft. Numerous moderate to scattered \nstrong convection is noted from 13N to 20N between 120W and 127W.  \nA turn toward the west-northwest is forecast Monday night into \nTuesday. Karina is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson \nHurricane Wind Scale. Some additional strengthening is possible \nover the next day or so. Swells generated by Karina will affect \nportions of the coast of southwest Mexico and the Baja California\nPeninsula for the next couple of days. These swells are likely \nto cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please\nconsult products from your local weather office.\nPlease read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National\nHurricane Center at website - \nhttps://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest \nKarina NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at \nwww.hurricanes.gov for more details. \nWell Offshore of Southwestern Mexico (EP95):\nShowers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low\npressure located well offshore of southwestern Mexico remain\ndisorganized. Scattered moderate to strong convection extends\nfrom 03N to 15N between 94W and 117W. Fresh to strong winds are\nalso in the vicinity of the disturbance. Environmental \nconditions appear conducive for gradual development, and a \ntropical depression is likely to form within the next couple of \ndays while the system continues to move west- northwestward to \nnorthwestward at 10 to 15 kt. This system has a high chance of \ntropical cyclone formation through 48 hours, and also through 7 \ndays. Refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at \nwww.hurricanes.gov for more details.\n \n...TROPICAL WAVES...\nThe axis of a tropical wave is along 91W north of 07N, moving \nwest at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is \nnoted N of 03N between 87W and 94W.\n...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...\nThe monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 09N90W to 08N90W to \n11N106W to 12N118W. In addition to the convection near Karina, \nand the tropical waves, scattered moderate to isolated strong \nconvection is evident N of 03N E of 85W to the coast of Colombia.\nPart of this convective activity is affecting western Panama and\nCosta Rica. \n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...\nPlease see the Special Features section for more information on \nHurricane Karina, and Invest EP95.\nHurricane Karina is near 17.1N 123.8W at 8 PM PDT, and is \nmoving west at 8 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 110 kt with \ngusts to 135 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 954 mb.\nFresh SE winds and rough seas on the far northeast periphery of \nHurricane Karina are still reaching the Revillagigedo Islands. \nModerate to fresh N gap winds are now blowing across Tehuantepec\nregion and downwind to near 14N. Moderate to fresh southerly \nwinds and slight seas dominate the Gulf of California, except the\ncentral part of the Gulf where fresh to strong winds are noted. \nGentle to moderate winds and moderate seas are present elsewhere.\nFor the forecast, Karina will continue to move WNW, and \ntrailing fresh SE winds affecting the Revillagigedo Islands as \nwell as rough seas to 9 ft across the Baja California offshore \nwaters will move away from the area by Mon morning. Fresh to \nstrong southerly winds in the northern Gulf of California will \ndiminish to gentle to moderate speeds tonight, and prevail the \nremainder forecast period. Strong winds and rough seas associated\nwith Invest EP95 are forecast to affect the outer SW Mexican \noffshores Tue, with this conditions shiftting to the Baja \nCalifornia Sur offshores the remainder forecast period.\n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, \nAND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...\nFresh easterly gap winds persist in the Gulf of Papagayo and \ndownwind to near 11N88W, with 5 ft seas. Gentle to moderate \nwinds and 4 to 6 ft seas are noted elsewhere. \nFor the forecast, fresh to strong NE to E gap winds will continue to\npulse in the Gulf of Papagayo area through early this week, then\nweakening slightly thereafter. Southerly winds may freshen south\nof the monsoon early this week. Winds will be moderate or weaker\nelsewhere with mainly moderate seas. Convection will remain active\nnear the monsoon trough. \n...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...\nPlease see the Special Features section for more information\nabout Hurricane Karina, and Invest EP95.\nHurricane Karina is near 17.1N 123.8W at 8 PM PDT, and is \nmoving west at 8 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 110 kt with \ngusts to 135 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 954 mb. \nElsewhere, mainly moderate or weaker winds dominate the \nremainder of the open waters both north and south of the monsoon \ntrough away from Karina, EP95 and the aforementioned trough. \nRough seas generated by Karina cover the waters from 11N to 24N \nbetween 115W and 128W. Seas are mainly moderate across the \nremainder of the open waters.\nFor the forecast, Karina will move to 17.1N 124.9W Mon morning, \n17.4N 126.6W Mon evening, 17.9N 128.4W Tue morning, 18.4N 130.3W \nTue evening, 18.9N 132.1W Wed morning, and 19.3N 134.0W Wed \nevening. Karina will change little in intensity as it moves near \n20.2N 137.2W late Thu.\n", "title": "Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1206120779855921155", "issued": "2026-08-31T04:05:00Z", "wmo": "AXPZ20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1206120779855921155"}