{"id": "1206106570114170883", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-08-31T03:00:00Z", "msg": "013\nWTPZ41 KNHC 310255\nTCDEP1\n \nHurricane Karina Discussion Number  15\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP112026\n500 PM HST Sun Aug 30 2026\n \nWarm sea surface temperatures, minimal wind shear and sufficiently \nmoist mid-level air have allowed for Major Hurricane Karina to \nrapidly intensify this evening. A recent SSMIS microwave pass \nrevealed a vertically aligned center with a well-defined eyewall. \nHowever, the latest infrared imagery is beginning to show warming \ncloud tops and slight erosion of the convective structure north of \nthe eye, which may indicate that this period of rapid \nintensification is beginning to level off. Recent objective \nintensity estimates from UW-CIMSS range from 91 to 122 kt. The \nintensity is set at 110 kt for this advisory.\n\nKarina is moving steadily westward around 8 kt, steered by a ridge \nof high pressure centered to the northwest of the cyclone. A turn \ntoward the west-northwest is forecast Monday night into Tuesday as a \nstrong upper-level trough begins to weaken this ridge. The latest \nNHC forecast is similar to the previous advisory through 72 h. \nBeyond that point, a large spread develops among the model guidance, \nattributed to differences in the strength and position of another \nridge building to the north and northwest. The forecast track has \nbeen adjusted to the left of the previous forecast advisory, towards \nHCCA and the Google DeepMind. Of note, Karina's track could have \nsome influence on Tropical Storm Lowell's motion as the two systems \nmove through the central Pacific. \n \nThe major hurricane is moving over very warm waters, with sea \nsurface temperatures near 29 C. Additional strengthening remains \npossible over the next 12-24 h as Karina encounters sufficiently \nwarm waters with ample mid-level moisture and low wind shear. \nGradual weakening is expected to begin on Tuesday as the cyclone \nmoves over cooler waters and drier air. Following Karina's rapid \nintensification this evening, the forecast lies near the upper end \nof the intensity guidance envelope, and is consistent with the \nlatest HCCA aid. \n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  31/0300Z 17.1N 123.8W  110 KT 125 MPH\n 12H  31/1200Z 17.1N 124.9W  125 KT 145 MPH\n 24H  01/0000Z 17.4N 126.6W  125 KT 145 MPH\n 36H  01/1200Z 17.9N 128.4W  120 KT 140 MPH\n 48H  02/0000Z 18.4N 130.3W  110 KT 125 MPH\n 60H  02/1200Z 18.9N 132.1W  105 KT 120 MPH\n 72H  03/0000Z 19.3N 134.0W  100 KT 115 MPH\n 96H  04/0000Z 20.2N 137.2W   90 KT 105 MPH\n120H  05/0000Z 20.9N 140.4W   75 KT  85 MPH\n \n"}