{"id": "1206103027805585411", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-08-31T03:00:00Z", "msg": "632\nWTPA44 PHFO 310237\nTCDCP4\n \nTropical Storm Lowell Discussion Number  14\nNWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP122026\nIssued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n500 PM HST Sun Aug 30 2026\n \nLowell's convective organization has changed little during the past \nseveral hours. Moderate easterly vertical wind shear continues to \ndisplace the bulk of the deep convection over and west of the \nlow-level circulation center. With little change in the satellite \npresentation, a blend of an earlier scatterometer pass, the latest \nobjective intensity estimates, and the subjective Dvorak intensity \nestimates from HFO and JTWC supports holding the initial intensity \nat 45 kt.\n \nThe initial motion is 270/10 kt. A low- to mid-level ridge north of \nthe cyclone should remain the primary steering influence during the \nnext couple of days, resulting in a continued westward motion. The \ntrack guidance remains in relatively good agreement through about 60 \nh. Thereafter, considerable cross-track spread persists among the \nguidance as Lowell gradually slows and begins to turn \nwest-northwestward. Some of this spread may be due to the potential \ninfluence of Hurricane Karina to the northeast on Lowell's steering \nflow, as well as differences in how the models depict a mid- to \nupper-level trough northwest of the Hawaiian Islands and the \nresulting weakness in the subtropical ridge. The HCCA and Google \nDeepMind ensemble mean remain along the southern side of the \nguidance envelope through day 5, while several other models favor a \nmore northwestward track along the northern side of the guidance \nenvelope. The latest NHC track forecast is essentially unchanged \nfrom the previous advisory and lies near the HCCA, Google DeepMind \nensemble mean (GDMI), and simple consensus (TVCN).\n\nModerate easterly vertical wind shear of around 20 kt continues to \naffect Lowell and should temper the rate of strengthening in the \nshort term. The shear is forecast to decrease during the next 12 to \n24 h while the cyclone remains over warm waters, which should allow \nLowell to become better organized and begin strengthening. A faster \nrate of intensification is forecast between 24 and 72 h as \nenvironmental conditions become more favorable. Thereafter, the \nintensity is forecast to level off around 96 h. The latest NHC \nintensity forecast is essentially an update of the previous \nforecast.\n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  31/0300Z 13.2N 143.3W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 12H  31/1200Z 13.1N 144.9W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 24H  01/0000Z 13.2N 146.8W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 36H  01/1200Z 13.4N 148.7W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 48H  02/0000Z 13.7N 150.5W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 60H  02/1200Z 13.9N 152.3W   85 KT 100 MPH\n 72H  03/0000Z 14.2N 154.2W   90 KT 105 MPH\n 96H  04/0000Z 15.0N 157.2W   95 KT 110 MPH\n120H  05/0000Z 15.7N 159.5W   90 KT 105 MPH\n \n"}