{"msg": "040\nAXNT20 KNHC 302301\nTWDAT \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n0015 UTC Mon Aug 31 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America\nGulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South\nAmerica, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the\nEquator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite\nimagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through\n2300 UTC.\n...SPECIAL FEATURES...\nNorthern Gulf of America (AL97):\nA low pressure area is located over the northern Gulf of America\nabout 125 miles south of the coast of southeastern Louisiana.\nSatellite imagery and recent satellite wind data indicate that\nthis system has become better organized since yesterday.\nAdditional development is possible as the low moves slowly west-\nnorthwestward, and a short-lived tropical depression or tropical\nstorm could form before the system reaches the Upper Texas or\nsouthwestern Louisiana coasts Tuesday or Tuesday night. Interests\nalong the Louisiana and Upper Texas coasts should monitor the\nprogress of this system. Regardless of development, locally heavy\nrainfall is possible over portions of the Upper Texas or\nsouthwestern Louisiana coasts during the next couple of days.\nthis system has a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation\nthrough 48 hours, and also through 7 days.\nNear Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands (Remnants of Dolly):\nA strong tropical wave, the remnants of Tropical Storm Dolly, is\nproducing an area of showers and thunderstorms from Puerto Rico\neastward across the Virgin Islands and the northern Leeward\nIslands. Satellite data and surface observations indicate that\nthere are no signs of a closed surface circulation, and\nredevelopment is unlikely during the next day or two while the\nwave moves westward to west-northwestward at about 25 mph. The\nsystem should bring locally heavy rains and gusty winds to\nportions of the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico,\nand Hispaniola over the next couple of days. Conditions may\nbecome more conducive for redevelopment by the middle of the week\nas the system reaches the southeastern Gulf of America. Showers\nand thunderstorms are currently affecting the Lesser Antilles\nmainly north of St. Lucia, Puerto Rico and the US/UK Virgin\nIslands and Dominican Republic. Rainfall amounts and the location\nof the highest totals will vary from island to island, as local \ntopography will enhance orographic lift and support the heaviest \nrainfall. Please refer to your local weather agency for specific \nrainfall forecasts for your local area. \nPlease, refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at \nwww.hurricanes.gov for more details.\n...TROPICAL WAVES...\nA tropical wave is added to 1800 UTC analysis/surface map along \n20W south of 20N. Some shower activity is near the wave axis. \nAnother tropical is along 42W, south of 21N, moving westward at \naround 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted where\nthe wave meets the ITCZ. \nA strong tropical wave, the remnants of Tropical Storm Dolly, is\nalong 66W. Please, see the Special Features section for more\ndetails.\nAnother tropical is over the central Caribbean with axis near\n80W, south of 20N, moving westward near 20 kt. The wave appears\nto enhance convection over the SW Caribbean, especially over\nwestern Panama. A few showers are near the northern end of the\nwave axis over the Cayman Islands.\n...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...\nThe monsoon trough enters the Atlantic from coastal Mauritania at\n20N16W southwestward to 09N30W. The ITCZ begins there and \nextends to 10N39W, then resumes at 09N43W and continues westward\nto NE Venezuela at 08.5N60W. Scattered moderate convection is \noccurring from 04N to 10N between 23W and 60W. \n \n...GULF OF AMERICA...\nA 1014 mb low pressure (AL97) about 100 NM south of the mouth of\nthe Mississippi River is producing scattered thunderstorms in \nthe north-central waters. Aside from gusty winds in thunderstorms,\npeak winds are around 20 kt and seas 4 ft. Scatterometer data \nindicate the cyclonic circulation of this system, and a closed \nlow is analyzed. Elsewhere, winds across the Gulf are moderate or\nweaker with seas 1 to 3 ft.\nFor the forecast, additional development is possible as the above\nmentioned low moves slowly west-northwest and a short-lived \ntropical depression or tropical storm could form before the \nsystem reaches the Upper Texas or SW Louisiana coasts Tue or Tue \nnight. Regardless of development, mariners over the north-central\nand northwest Gulf can expect strong thunderstorms with gusty \nwinds and locally higher seas early this week. Elsewhere, weak \nhigh pressure will persist through the forecast period, sustaining\nmoderate or weaker winds and slight seas. Winds will pulse to \nfresh with moderate seas off western Yucatan during the evenings \ndue to a diurnal surface trough moving west off the peninsula \neach night. \n...CARIBBEAN SEA...\nPlease refer to the Special Features section above for rainfall\ninformation associated with a strong tropical wave moving across \nthe NE Caribbean. \nThe pressure gradient from the Bermuda High north of the area\nalong with the 1008 mb Colombian Low is forcing fresh to strong\ntrades over the south-central Caribbean with seas of 5 to 8 ft. \nAdditionally, rough seas in NE swell are impacting the Atlantic\npassages of the NE Caribbean. Elsewhere, winds are moderate or \nweaker with seas 2 to 4 ft.\nFor the forecast, as previously mentioned, a strong tropical \nwave is producing numerous thunderstorms, strong winds, and rough\nseas over the far NE Caribbean, northern Leeward Islands, Virgin\nIslands, Puerto Rico, and adjacent Atlantic waters. This wave \nwill move westward toward Hispaniola tonight and Monday, then \naffect eastern Cuba into Tue. Elsewhere across the basin, the \npressure gradient between the subtropical ridge and Colombian low\nwill continue to force fresh to locally strong easterly trades \nand moderate to locally rough seas over the central and eastern \nCaribbean through the week, with moderate or weaker winds and \nslight to moderate seas prevailing for the remainder of the \nwaters. \n...ATLANTIC OCEAN...\nPlease refer to the Special Features section above for information\nabout the strong tropical wave, remnants of Dolly, moving across\nthe NE Caribbean.\nThe Bermuda-Azores High extends as a ridge along 34N with a 1025 \nmb center at 34N53W and a second 1025 mb center at 34N32W. The \npressure gradient from those to lower pressure over the ITCZ and \nmonsoon trough is forcing only moderate to locally fresh trades \nwith seas of 4 to 7 ft. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are \nalso noted north of 25N W of 60W, including parts of the Bahamas,\nand most of the Florida Peninsula. A diffluent pattern aloft \ncontinues to support this convective activity. \nFor the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned remnants of Dolly \nwill move westward and impact Hispaniola tonight and Monday, then\neastern Cuba into Tue, bringing similar conditions to waters S of\n23N early this week. Elsewhere, abundant tropical moisture and a\ndeep-layer trough will aide in scattered thunderstorms W of 70W \nthrough Tue. To the east, the subtropical ridge will dominate, \nsupporting mainly moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas. \nWinds will pulse to locally strong off Hispaniola tonight. \n", "title": "Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1206060719372763139", "issued": "2026-08-30T00:15:00Z", "wmo": "AXNT20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1206060719372763139"}