{"msg": "430\nAXPZ20 KNHC 302201\nTWDEP\nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n2205 UTC Sun Aug 30 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from\n03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and\nfrom the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following\ninformation is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,\nradar, and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through\n2100 UTC.\n...SPECIAL FEATURES...\nHurricane Karina is centered near 17.2N 123.2W at 30/2100 UTC,\nmoving west at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 978\nmb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 80 kt with gusts to 100 kt. \nPeak seas are around 33 ft (10 m). Numerous moderate to scattered\nstrong convection is noted within 120 nm of the center. Karina \nis moving toward the west. A slower westward to west-northwestward\nmotion is expected during the next few days. Steady to rapid \nstrengthening seems likely, and Karina is forecast to become a \nmajor hurricane in a day or so. Swells generated by Karina will \naffect portions of the coast of southwest Mexico and the Baja \nCalifornia Peninsula for the next couple of days. These swells \nare likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current \nconditions. Please consult products from your local weather \noffice.\nPlease read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National\nHurricane Center at website - \nhttps://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest \nKarina NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at \nwww.hurricanes.gov for more details. \nWell Offshore of Southwestern Mexico (EP95):\nA tropical wave with disorganized showers and thunderstorms, is\nlocated well to the south of southwestern Mexico. This system is\nexpected to continue to move west-northwestward to northwestward\nat 10 to 15 kt. Environmental conditions appear favorable for \ngradual development of this system, and a tropical depression is \nlikely to form during the early to middle part of next week. This\nsystem has a high chance of tropical cyclone formation through \n48 hours, and also through 7 days. Refer to the latest NHC \nTropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details.\n \n...TROPICAL WAVES...\nThe axis of a tropical wave is along 89W north of 05N, moving \nwest at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted near\nthe southern end of the wave axis. \nThe axis of a tropical wave is along 106W from 05N to 17N with a\n1010 mb low pressure (EP95) located near 12N106W. This system is\nmoving NNW at around 5 kt. Numerous moderate to scattered strong\nconvection is noted from 10N to 15N between 100W and 110W. Similar\nconvective activity can be found from 05N to 10N between 98W and\n104W. Fresh to strong winds and rough seas are seen on the \neither side of the wave axis, particularly from 12N to 15.5N \nbetween 102W and 108W. Please, see the Special Features section \nfor more information.\n...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...\nThe monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 09N90W to 08N90W to \n11N106W to 12N118W. In addition to the convection near Karina, \nand the tropical waves, scattered moderate to isolated strong \nconvection is evident N of 03N E of 85W to the coast of Colombia.\nPart of this convective activity is affecting western Panama and\nCosta Rica. \n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...\nPlease see the Special Features section for more information on \nHurricane Karina, and an area of disturbed weather with the \npotential of tropical cyclone formation (EP95).\nFresh SE winds and rough seas on the far northeast periphery of \nHurricane Karina are still reaching the Revillagigedo Islands. \nOuter rainbands associated with the cyclone's circulation are \nalso moving across the islands. Moderate to fresh N gap winds are\nnow blowing across Tehuantepec region and downwind to near 14N. \nGentle to locally moderate southerly winds and slight seas \ndominate the Gulf of California, except the northern part of the\nGulf where fresh to strong winds and moderate seas are noted. \nGentle to moderate winds and moderate seas are present elsewhere.\nFor the forecast, Hurricane Karina will move to 17.1N 124.2W Mon\nmorning, 17.3N 125.8W Mon afternoon, 17.6N 127.6W Tue morning, \n18.0N 129.4W Tue afternoon, 18.6N 131.3W Wed morning, and 19.0N \n132.9W Wed afternoon. Karina will change little in intensity as \nit moves to near 19.9N 136.2W Thu afternoon. The fresh SE winds\nand rough seas impacting the Revillagigedo Islands, particularly\nClarion Island, on the far eastern periphery of Hurricane \nKarina, will diminish tonight into Mon as the storm moves farther\nwest. In addition, the fresh to strong southerly winds in the\nnorthern Gulf of California will also diminish tonight. Then, \nmainly gentle to moderate winds and slight seas are expected.\nHowever, seas are forecast to build near the entrance to the \nGulf by midweek as the next tropical cyclone approaches the \nRevillagigedo Islands. Looking ahead, a tropical wave with \ndisorganized showers and thunderstorms, is located well to the \nsouth of southwestern Mexico. This system is expected to continue\nto move west-northwestward to northwestward at 10 to 15 mph. \nEnvironmental conditions appear favorable for gradual development\nof this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form \nduring the early to middle part of the week.\n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, \nAND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...\nFresh to strong easterly gap winds persist in the Gulf of Papagayo\nand downwind to near 10N90W, with 6 to 8 ft seas. Gentle to \nmoderate winds and 4 to 6 ft seas are noted elsewhere. \nFor the forecast, fresh to strong NE to E gap winds will continue to\npulse in the Gulf of Papagayo area through early this week, then\nweakening slightly thereafter. Southerly winds may freshen south\nof the monsoon early this week. Winds will be moderate or weaker\nelsewhere with mainly moderate seas. Convection will remain active\nnear the monsoon trough. \n...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...\nPlease see the Special Features section for more information\nabout Hurricane Karina, and an area of disturbed weather located\nwell offshore of Southwestern Mexico with the potential of \ntropical cyclone formation (EP95).\nA trough, associated with the remnant low of Post-Tropical cyclone\nIselle, remains over the NW corner of the forecast region and extends\nfrom 26N135W to 21N142W. Fresh to strong NE winds and seas of 7 \nto 9 ft are occurring near the northern end of the trough axis \nand mainly 25N to 28N W of 137W. Elsewhere, mainly moderate or \nweaker winds dominate the remainder of the open waters both north\nand south of the monsoon trough away from Karina, EP95 and the \naforementioned trough. Rough seas generated by Karina cover the \nwaters from 11N to 24N between 115W and 128W. Seas are mainly \nmoderate across the remainder of the open waters.\nFor the forecast, Hurricane Karina will move to 17.1N 124.2W Mon\nmorning, 17.3N 125.8W Mon afternoon, 17.6N 127.6W Tue morning, \n18.0N 129.4W Tue afternoon, 18.6N 131.3W Wed morning, and 19.0N \n132.9W Wed afternoon. Karina will change little in intensity as \nit moves to near 19.9N 136.2W Thu afternoon. Tropical Storm\nLowell is now west of the forecast area. The associated winds \nand seas will also move W of area by tonight. Seas generated by \nKarina will continue to propagate across a large part of the \nforecast region early this week.\n", "title": "Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1206048832529235971", "issued": "2026-08-30T22:05:00Z", "wmo": "AXPZ20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1206048832529235971"}