{"id": "1206032972947488771", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-08-30T21:00:00Z", "msg": "025\nWTPA44 PHFO 302040\nTCDCP4\n \nTropical Storm Lowell Discussion Number  13\nNWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP122026\nIssued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n1100 AM HST Sun Aug 30 2026\n \nLowell's outflow to the east is starting to improve, a sign that the \npersistent easterly shear might be decreasing. However, this has not \nyet resulted in a noticeable increase in the convective \norganization, as the center is still located just under the eastern \nside of a triangular-shaped convective mass.  A just-received \nASCAT-C overpass shows wind vectors of 42 kt in the northwest \nquadrant. Based on this and the various satellite intensity \nestimates, the initial intensity remains 45 kt.\n \nThe initial motion is now 270/11 kt. As before, a low- to mid-level \nridge north of the cyclone should remain the primary steering \ninfluence during the next couple of days, resulting in a continued \ngenerally westward motion. After that, there remains significant \ncross-track spread in the guidance. Some of this may be due to the \npossible influence of Hurricane Karina on Lowell's steering. The two \ncyclones are likely to stay far enough apart that direct interaction \nis unlikely. However, the Canadian model forecast still suggests the \npossibility of Karina affecting Lowell's motion.  Another cause for \nthe spread may be the models' differences in the forecast of a mid- \nto upper-level trough northwest of the Hawaiian Islands.  The GFS \nforecasts the trough develop farther south and create a weakness in \nthe subtropical ridge with Lowell moving farther north, while the \nECMWF keeps the trough farther to the north with less weakening of \nthe ridge and Lowell staying farther south. Currently, it is \ndifficult to tell which of these scenarios will become reality. The \nnew forecast track lies near the HFIP Corrected Consensus model and \nis similar to the previous track.\n\nThe intensity guidance is unchanged since the last advisory, and \nindeed it hasn't changed much for the past two days.  Lowell should \nstart intensifying in the next 12-24 h, with a faster rate of \nstrengthening between 24-72 h as conditions become more favorable. \nThe guidance suggests the intensity should level off around 96-120 \nh, and the forecast follows this. The new intensity forecast is an \nupdate of the previous forecast.\n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  30/2100Z 13.3N 141.8W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 12H  31/0600Z 13.3N 143.4W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 24H  31/1800Z 13.3N 145.4W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 36H  01/0600Z 13.5N 147.3W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 48H  01/1800Z 13.7N 149.2W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 60H  02/0600Z 13.9N 150.9W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 72H  02/1800Z 14.1N 152.7W   90 KT 105 MPH\n 96H  03/1800Z 14.8N 155.8W   95 KT 110 MPH\n120H  04/1800Z 15.6N 158.6W   95 KT 110 MPH\n \n"}