{"msg": "848\nAXPZ20 KNHC 301601\nTWDEP \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n1605 UTC Sun Aug 30 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from\n03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and\nfrom the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following\ninformation is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,\nradar, and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through\n1500 UTC.\n...SPECIAL FEATURES...\nHurricane Karina is centered near 17.3N 122.1W at 30/1500 UTC,\nmoving west-northwest at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central\npressure is 980 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 70 kt with\ngusts to 85 kt. Peak seas are around 33 ft (10 m). Numerous \nmoderate to scattered strong convection is noted within 120 nm \nof the center. Karina is moving toward the west- northwest. A \nslower westward to west-northwestward motion is expected during \nthe next few days. Steady to rapid strengthening seems likely, \nand Karina is forecast to become a major hurricane in a day or \nso. Swells generated by Karina will affect portions of the coast \nof southwest Mexico and the Baja California Peninsula for the \nnext couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life- \nthreatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult \nproducts from your local weather office.\nPlease read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National\nHurricane Center at website - \nhttps://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest \nKarina NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at \nwww.hurricanes.gov for more details. \nTropical Storm Lowell is just west of area centered near 13.3N \n140.4W at 30/1500 UTC, moving west at 11 kt. Estimated minimum \ncentral pressure is 1000 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 \nkt with gusts to 55 kt. Peak seas are currently around 13 ft (4 \nm). Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is within \n180 nm W semicircle. Lowell is moving toward the west near 13 mph\n(20 km/h), and a general westward motion is expected during the \nnext two to three days. Gradual strengthening is expected during \nthe next few days, and Lowell could become a hurricane by Monday\nor Monday night.\nPlease read the latest CPHC Public Advisory at\nhttps://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/HFOTCPCP4.shtml and Forecast/\nAdvisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/HFOTCMCP4.shtml for\nmore details.\nWell Offshore of Southwestern Mexico:\nAn area of disturbed weather, associated with a tropical wave, is\nlocated well to the south of southwestern Mexico. This system is\nexpected to continue to move west-northwestward to northwestward\nat 10 to 15 mph. Environmental conditions appear favorable for\ngradual development of this system, and a tropical depression is\nlikely to form during the early to middle part of next week. \nThis system has a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation \nthrough 48 hours, and a high chance through 7 days. Refer to the \nlatest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for \nmore details.\n \n...TROPICAL WAVES...\nThe axis of a tropical wave is along 88W north of 05N, moving \nwest at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is active \nfrom 10N to 12N between 88W and 96W.\nThe axis of a tropical wave is along 107W from 05N to 17N, moving\nquickly westward at around 20 kt. Numerous moderate to scattered\nstrong convection is noted from 07N to 14N between 100W and \n110W.\n...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...\nThe monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 09N90W to 08N90W to \n11N107W to 10N110W. In addition to the convection near Karina, \nLowell and the tropical waves, scattered moderate to isolated \nstrong convection is evident N of 04N E of 81W to the coast of \nColombia. Part of this convective activity is over the Gulf of \nPanama. Similar convection is also found from 02N to 10N W of \n115W.\n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...\nPlease see the Special Features section for more information on \nHurricane Karina, and an area of disturbed weather with the \npotential of tropical cyclone formation.\nWhile the main impacts of Karina remain west of the Mexican \noffshore waters, strong to near gale force winds and rough to \nvery rough seas on the far northeast periphery of Karina are \nreaching the Revillagigedo Islands. Outer rainbands associated\nwith the cyclone's circulation are also moving across the \nislands. Fresh to strong N gap winds continue to blow across \nTehuantepec region and downwind to near 14N. Gentle to locally \nmoderate southerly winds and slight seas dominate the Gulf of \nCalifornia except the northern part where fresh to locally strong\nwinds and moderate seas are noted. Gentle to moderate winds and \nmoderate seas are noted elsewhere.\nFor the forecast, Hurricane Karina Karina will move to 17.5N \n123.5W this evening, 17.6N 125.1W Mon morning, 17.8N 126.9W Mon \nevening, 18.1N 128.7W Tue morning, 18.6N 130.3W Tue evening, and \n19.1N 131.9W Wed morning. Karina will change little in intensity \nas it moves to near 20.0N 135.1W early Thu. The fresh SE winds \nimpacting the Revillagigedo Islands, particularly Clarion Island,\non the far eastern periphery of Hurricane Karina, will diminish \nthrough late today as the storm moves farther west. Associated \nrough to very rough seas will gradually subside from east to west\nacross the islands by tonight. Fresh to strong northerly gap \nwinds and occasional rough seas will continue to pulse in the \nGulf of Tehuantepec through this morning. Fresh to strong \nsoutherly winds are expected across the northern and central Gulf\nof California through tonight into Mon. Looking ahead, an area \nof disturbed weather, associated with a tropical wave, is located\nwell to the south of southwestern Mexico. This system is \nexpected to continue to move west-northwestward to northwestward \nat 10 to 15 mph. Environmental conditions appear favorable for \ngradual development of this system, and a tropical depression is \nlikely to form during the early to middle part of next week.\n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, \nAND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...\nFresh to strong easterly gap winds persist in the Gulf of Papagayo\nand downwind to near 10N90W, with 6 to 8 ft seas. Gentle to \nmoderate winds and 4 to 6 ft seas are noted elsewhere. \nFor the forecast, fresh to strong NE to E gap winds will continue to\npulse in the Gulf of Papagayo area through the weekend into\nearly next week, then weakening slightly thereafter. Associated\nmoderate to fresh winds will extend well downwind to the outer\noffshore waters of El Salvador and Guatemala. Southerly winds\nmay freshen south of the monsoon trough this weekend into early\nnext week. Winds will be moderate or weaker elsewhere with\nmainly moderate seas. Convection will remain active near the\nmonsoon trough. \n...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...\nPlease see the Special Features section for more information\nabout Hurricane Karina, Tropical Storm Lowell, currently located\njust west of the forecast area, and an area of disturbed weather\nlocated well offshore of Southwestern Mexico with the potential \nof tropical cyclone formation.\nA trough, associated with the remnant low of Post-Tropical cyclone\nIselle, extends from 27N135W to 20N139W. Fresh to strong NE \nwinds and seas of 7 to 9 ft are occurring near the northern end \nof the trough axis and mainly 25N to 28N W of 137W . Elsewhere, \nmainly moderate or weaker winds dominate the remainder of the \nopen waters both north and south of the monsoon trough away from \nthe two tropical cyclones and the aforementioned trough. Rough \nseas generated by Karina cover the waters 10N to 23N between \n113W and 127W. Seas are mainly moderate across the remainder of\nthe open waters.\nFor the forecast, Hurricane Karina Karina will move to 17.5N 123.5W \nthis evening, 17.6N 125.1W Mon morning, 17.8N 126.9W Mon evening,\n18.1N 128.7W Tue morning, 18.6N 130.3W Tue evening, and 19.1N \n131.9W Wed morning. Karina will change little in intensity as it \nmoves to near 20.0N 135.1W early Thu. Tropical Storm Lowell \nwill be W of area near 13.3N 142.0W this afternoon. The associated\nwinds and seas will also move W of area by tonight. Seas generated\nby Karina will continue to propagate across a large part of the \nforecast region early this week.\n", "title": "Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1205977988037312515", "issued": "2026-08-30T16:05:00Z", "wmo": "AXPZ20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1205977988037312515"}