{"msg": "238\nAXNT20 KNHC 301537\nTWDAT \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n1815 UTC Sun Aug 30 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America\nGulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South\nAmerica, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the\nEquator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite\nimagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through \n1500 UTC.\n...SPECIAL FEATURES...\nSignificant Rainfall across the NE Caribbean: A strong tropical \nwave, the remnants of Tropical Storm Dolly, is producing scattered\nmoderate and isolated strong convection from 15N-21N between\n58W-67W, including Puerto Rico eastward across the Virgin Islands\nand the northern Leeward Islands. Fresh to locally near-gale winds and\n8-12 ft seas are associated with this wave from 18N-22N between\n60W-65W. Satellite data and surface observations indicate that \nthere are no signs of a closed surface circulation, and \nredevelopment is unlikely during the next day or two while the \nwave moves westward to west-northwestward at about 20 kt. The \nsystem should bring locally heavy rains and gusty winds to \nportions of the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto \nRico over the next couple of days. Rainfall amounts and the \nlocation of the highest totals will vary from island to island, as\nlocal topography will enhance orographic lift and support the \nheaviest rainfall. Please refer to your local weather agency for \nspecific rainfall forecasts for your local area. Conditions may \nbecome more conducive for redevelopment by the middle of the week \nas the system reaches the southeastern Gulf of America and the \nsystem has a low chance of formation through 7 days\nPlease, refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at \nwww.hurricanes.gov for more details.\n...TROPICAL WAVES...\nAn central Atlantic tropical wave is along 41W, south of 22N, \nmoving westward at around 15-20 kt. Isolated moderate convection\nis occurring from 13N-15N between 33W-40W.\nAn eastern Caribbean tropical wave is along 64W, south of 23N, \nmoving westward at 20-25 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated \nstrong convection is occurring from 15N-21N between 58W-67W. See \nthe Special Features section above for more information on this \nwave.\nA central Caribbean tropical wave is along 78W, south of 2-N, \nmoving westward near 20 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong\nconvection is occurring south of 11N between 77W-83W.\n...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...\nThe monsoon trough enters the Atlantic from coastal Mauritania at\n20N16W southwestward to 10N29W. The ITCZ begins there and extends\nto 10N39W, where it breaks for the central Atlantic tropical wave.\nThe ITCZ resumes at 09N43W and extends westward to coastal Guyana\nat 08N59W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring from 10N-15N\neast of 21W and from 07N-11N between 45W-57W. Isolated moderate\nconvection is also noted from 07N-10N between 15W-45W.\n \n...GULF OF AMERICA...\nA 1014 mb low pressure about 100 NM south of the mouth of the \nMississippi River is producing a cluster of thunderstorms in the \nnorth-central waters. Aside from gusty winds in thunderstorms, peak\nwinds are around 20 kt and seas 4 ft. Elsewhere, winds across the\nGulf are moderate or weaker with seas 1-3 ft.\nFor the forecast, slow development of the low is possible over \nthe next couple of days as it moves west or west-northwest across\nthe northern basin. Regardless of development, mariners over the \nnorth-central and northwest Gulf can expect strong thunderstorms \nwith gusty winds and locally higher seas early this week. There is\na low chance of tropical formation of this low pressure over the \nnext 48 hours. Elsewhere, weak high pressure will persist through \nthe forecast period, sustaining moderate or weaker winds and \nslight seas. Winds will pulse to fresh with moderate seas off \nwestern Yucatan during the evenings due to a diurnal surface \ntrough moving west off the peninsula each night. \n...CARIBBEAN SEA...\nPlease refer to the Special Features section above for rainfall\ninformation associated with a strong tropical wave moving across \nthe NE Caribbean. \nThe pressure gradient from the Bermuda High north of the area\nalong with the 1008 mb Colombian Low is forcing fresh to strong\ntrades over the S central Caribbean with seas 5-8 ft.\nAdditionally, seas of 5-8 ft in NE swell are impacting the \nAnegada Passage. Elsewhere, winds are moderate or weaker with seas\n2-4 ft.\nFor the forecast, the aforementioned remnants of Dolly will move \nquickly westward and impact Hispaniola tonight and Monday, then \neastern Cuba into Tue. Elsewhere across the basin, the pressure \ngradient between the subtropical ridge and Colombian low will \ncontinue to force fresh to locally strong easterly trades and \nmoderate to locally rough seas over the central and eastern \nCaribbean through the week, with moderate or weaker winds and \nslight to moderate seas prevailing for the remainder of the \nwaters. \n...ATLANTIC OCEAN...\nPlease refer to the Special Features section above for information\nabout the strong tropical wave, remnants of Dolly, moving across\nthe NE Caribbean.\nThe Bermuda-Azores High extends as a ridge along 34N with a 1025 \nmb center at 34N54W and a second 1026 mb center at 34N32W. The\npressure gradient from those to lower pressure over the ITCZ and\nmonsoon trough is forcing only moderate to locally strong trades\nthis morning with seas of 3-7 ft. Scattered moderate convection is\nalso noted north of 25N between 73W-77W associated with a surface\ntrough extending from 28N76W to beyond 31N74W.\nFor the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned remnants of Dolly \nwill move quickly westward and impact Hispaniola tonight and \nMonday, then eastern Cuba into Tue, bringing similar conditions to\nwaters S of 23N early this week. Elsewhere, abundant tropical \nmoisture and a deep-layer trough will aide in scattered \nthunderstorms W of 70W through Tue. To the east, the subtropical \nridge will dominate, supporting mainly moderate or weaker winds \nand moderate seas. Winds will pulse to locally strong off \nHispaniola through tonight. \n", "title": "Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1205973365868396547", "issued": "2026-08-30T18:15:00Z", "wmo": "AXNT20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1205973365868396547"}