{"id": "1205963075847716867", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-08-30T15:00:00Z", "msg": "147\nWTPA44 PHFO 301445\nTCDCP4\n \nTropical Storm Lowell Discussion Number  12\nNWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP122026\nIssued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n500 AM HST Sun Aug 30 2026\n \nLowell is still showing signs of easterly shear, with the low-level \ncenter just under the eastern edge of the convective overcast. \nSatellite intensity estimates are in the 35-45 kt range and have \nchanged little since the last advisory. Thus, the initial intensity \nremains 45 kt.\n \nThe initial motion is now 270/11 kt. As before, a low- to mid-level \nridge north of the cyclone should remain the primary steering \ninfluence during the next couple of days, resulting in a continued \ngenerally westward motion. After that, there is considerable \ncross-track spread in the guidance, likely due in part to the \npotential influence of Hurricane Karina to the northeast on Lowell's \nsteering flow. The HFIP Corrected Consensus (HCCA), the UKMET, and \nthe Google DeepMind ensemble mean continue to show a more westward \nmotion days 3-4, while the GFS, ECMWF, and the regional hurricane \nmodels show a west-northwestward motion. The Canadian model is still \ncalling for an interaction with Karina that would cause Lowell to \nbecome nearly stationary, but that solution looks unlikely at the \nmoment. The new forecast track lies a little to the north of the \nHCCA forecast and a little to the north of the previous forecast.\n \nFor the past two days, the forecast has been for the shear to let up \nand Lowell to start strengthening, but this has not yet happened. \nThe guidance, though, continues to forecast this, and while the \ncirrus outflow is restricted to the east there is more of it than \nthere was yesterday. The new intensity forecast will follow the \nguidance trend and show the system strengthening through 96 h, with \nthe forecast in the middle of the intensity guidance envelope.  The \nintensity near the end of the forecast period will depend on how \nclose Lowell and the larger Karina are, as the closer they are the \nweaker Lowell is likely to be. For now, the forecast shows Lowell's \nintensity leveling off by 120 h.\n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  30/1500Z 13.3N 140.4W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 12H  31/0000Z 13.3N 142.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 24H  31/1200Z 13.3N 144.1W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 36H  01/0000Z 13.3N 146.1W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 48H  01/1200Z 13.5N 148.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 60H  02/0000Z 13.7N 149.9W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 72H  02/1200Z 13.9N 151.6W   90 KT 105 MPH\n 96H  03/1200Z 14.5N 154.8W   95 KT 110 MPH\n120H  04/1200Z 15.4N 157.7W   95 KT 110 MPH\n \n"}