{"msg": "863\nAXNT20 KNHC 300951\nTWDAT\nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n1215 UTC Sun Aug 30 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America\nGulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South\nAmerica, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the\nEquator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite\nimagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through \n0935 UTC.\n...SPECIAL FEATURES...\nSignificant Rainfall across the NE Caribbean: A strong tropical\nwave, associated with the remnants of Dolly, is moving across the\nnorthern Leeward Islands producing a large area of showers and\nthunderstorms, especially from 15N to 22N and between 56W and \n65W. Satellite data and surface observations indicate that there \nare no signs of a closed surface circulation, and redevelopment is\nunlikely while the wave moves westward to west-northwestward at \nabout 25 mph. The system could bring locally heavy rains and gusty\nwinds to portions of the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and\nPuerto Rico over the next couple of days. The wave is expected to\nbring locally heavy rains and gusty winds to portions of the \nLeeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico and the adjacent \nwaters over the next several days. Rainfall amounts and the \nlocation of the highest totals will vary from island to island, as\nlocal topography will enhance orographic lift and support the \nheaviest rainfall. Please refer to your local weather agency for \nspecific rainfall forecasts for your local area. \nPlease, refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at \nwww.hurricanes.gov for more details.\n...TROPICAL WAVES...\nAn eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 38W, south of 17N, \nmoving westward at around 15 kt. A few showers and isolated\nthunderstorms are occurring within 90 nm on both sides of the\ntrough axis.\nAn eastern Caribbean tropical wave is along 62W, south of 21N, \nmoving westward at 20-25 kt. Fresh to locally near gale-force \nwinds and rough seas are associated with this wave. Recently a \nbuoy north of the Leeward Islands reported winds gusts to 41 kt \nand gusts to 43 kt has been reported in the northern Leewards. See\nthe Special Features section above for more information on this \nwave.\nA central Caribbean tropical wave is along 75W, south of 18N, moving\nwestward near 20 kt. No significant convection is noted over \nwater.\nFor information about the tropical wave crossing Central America,\nplease read the Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion.\n...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...\nThe monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of\nMauritania near 21N16W and continues southwestward to 11N29W. The\nITCZ extends from 12N31W to 11N37W and then from 09N40W to 07N47W\nand to 10N62W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is\npresent within 150 nm on both sides of the monsoon trough and\nITCZ.\n \n...GULF OF AMERICA...\nA 1015 mb low pres south of the mouth of the Mississippi River is\nproducing scattered showers and a few thunderstorms across the \nnorth-central Gulf waters. A surface trough is noted in the\neastern Gulf, also supporting scattered showers and isolated\nthunderstorms. A weak high pressure system dominates the \nremainder of the basin. Moderate to locally fresh easterly winds \nand seas of 2-4 ft are found in the north-central and eastern Gulf\nwaters, especially east of 90W and eastern Bay of Campeche. \nElsewhere, light to gentle winds and slight seas prevail.\nFor the forecast, some slow development of this system \n(aforementioned low pres) is possible during the next few days as \nit drifts westward across the northern Gulf. Regardless of \ndevelopment, mariners over the northern Gulf waters can expect \nthunderstorms with gusty winds and locally higher seas over the \nnext few days. Elsewhere, weak high pressure will persist through \nthe forecast period, sustaining moderate or weaker winds and \nslight seas. Winds will pulse to fresh with moderate seas off \nwestern Yucatan during the evenings due to a diurnal surface \ntrough moving west off the peninsula each night. \n...CARIBBEAN SEA...\nPlease refer to the Special Features section above for rainfall\ninformation associated with a strong tropical wave moving across \nthe northern Leeward Islands. \nThe eastern Pacific monsoon trough is helping to enhance a few\nshowers and isolated thunderstorms in the southwest Caribbean\nwaters, especially off Panama. High pressure north of the islands\nsustains fresh to strong easterly trade winds and seas of 5-8 ft\nin the central Caribbean. Moderate or weaker winds and slight to\nmoderate seas are prevalent in the rest of the basin.\nFor the forecast, the aforementioned remnants of Dolly will bring\nscattered showers and thunderstorms, strong winds and rough seas \ntoday to the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico and nearby waters \nsouth of 23N, and then Hispaniola and SE Bahamas on Mon. \nElsewhere, abundant tropical moisture and a deep-layer trough will\naide in scattered thunderstorms W of 70W into early this week. To\nthe east, the subtropical ridge will dominate, supporting mainly \nmoderate or weaker winds and moderate seas. Winds will pulse to \nlocally strong off northern Hispaniola through tonight. \n...ATLANTIC OCEAN...\nPlease refer to the Special Features section above for information\nabout the strong tropical wave, remnants of Dolly, moving across\nthe Leeward Islands.\nAbundant moisture, a surface trough and divergence aloft associated\nwith an upper level trough over the eastern United States combine\nto generate numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms west of \n70W. Mariners can expect gusty winds, frequent lightning and \nhigher seas near the strongest storms. Elsewhere, a broad \nsubtropical ridge dominates the remainder of the tropical Atlantic\nbetween Africa and the Bahamas. Moderate or weaker winds and \nmoderate seas prevail across the area, outside of the influence of\nthe remnants of Dolly. However, fresh northerly winds and seas of\n5-9 ft are found off Morocco and northern Mauritania.\nFor the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned remnants of Dolly \nwill bring scattered showers and thunderstorms, strong winds and \nrough seas today to the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico and nearby\nwaters south of 23N, and then Hispaniola and SE Bahamas on Mon. \nElsewhere, abundant tropical moisture and a deep- layer trough \nwill aide in scattered thunderstorms W of 70W into early this \nweek. To the east, the subtropical ridge will dominate, supporting\nmainly moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas. Winds will \npulse to locally strong off northern Hispaniola through tonight..\n", "title": "Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1205905332467040259", "issued": "2026-08-30T12:15:00Z", "wmo": "AXNT20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1205905332467040259"}