{"msg": "811\nAXPZ20 KNHC 300910\nTWDEP\nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n1005 UTC Sun Aug 30 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from\n03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and\nfrom the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following\ninformation is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,\nradar, and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through\n0900 UTC.\n...SPECIAL FEATURES...\nNewly upgraded Hurricane Karina is centered near 17.3N 121.1W at\n30/0900 UTC, moving west-northwest at 13 kt. Estimated minimum \ncentral pressure is 980 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 70 kt\nwith gusts to 85 kt. Peak seas are around 30 ft (9.5 m). \nNumerous moderate to isolated strong convection is noted within \n180 nm of the center. Karina is moving toward the west-\nnorthwest, followed by a more westerly motion over the next day \nor two. Karina is just below hurricane intensity. Strengthening \nis forecast during the next several days. Karina is forecast to \nbecome a hurricane within the next day and could become a major \nhurricane early next week. Swells generated by Karina will begin \nto affect portions of the coast of southwest Mexico and the Baja \nCalifornia Peninsula this weekend. These swells are likely to \ncause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please \nconsult products from your local weather office. \nTropical Storm Lowell is centered near 13.2N 139.1W at 30/0900\nUTC, moving west at 9 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is\n1000 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55\nkt. Peak seas are currently around 13 ft (4 m). Numerous \nmoderate to scattered strong convection is within 150 nm W \nsemicircle. Lowell is moving toward the west-northwest. A \nwestward motion should resume during the next few hours and \ncontinue for the next several days. Gradual strengthening is \nexpected during the weekend, and Lowell could become a hurricane \nby Monday or Monday night.\nPlease read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National\nHurricane Center at website \n- https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest \nLowell NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at \nwww.hurricanes.gov for more details.\nWell Offshore of Southwestern Mexico:\nAn area of disturbed weather, associated with a tropical wave, is\nlocated well to the south of southwestern Mexico. This system is\nexpected to move west-northwestward to northwestward at 10 to 15\nmph. Environmental conditions appear favorable for gradual\ndevelopment of this system, and a tropical depression is likely\nto form in the next several of days. This system has a medium\nchance of tropical cyclone formation through 48 hours, and a high\nchance through 7 days. Refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather\nOutlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details.\n \n...TROPICAL WAVES...\nThe axis of a tropical wave is along 84W north of 05N, moving\nwest at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is active from\n05N to 07N between 80W and 87W.\nThe axis of a tropical wave is along 106W from 04N to 15N, \nmoving quickly westward at around 20 kt. Scattered moderate to \nisolated strong convection is from 12N to 20N between 100W AND \n110W. \n...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...\nThe monsoon trough extends from 07N78W to 09N85W to 08N90W to\n12N108W. No significant convection is observed other than what\nhas already been described near Karina, Lowell and the tropical \nwaves.\n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...\nPlease see the Special Features section for more information on \nHurricane Karina, and an area of disturbed weather with the \npotential of tropical cyclone formation.\nWhile the main impacts of Karina remain west of the Mexican \noffshore waters, strong to near gale force winds and rough to \nvery rough seas on the far northeast periphery of Karina are \nreaching the Revillagigedo Islands. Outer rainbands associated\nwith the cyclone's circulation are also moving across the \nislands. Fresh to strong N gap winds continue to blow across \nTehuantepec region and downwind to near 14N. Gentle to locally \nmoderate southerly winds and slight seas dominate the Gulf of \nCalifornia. Gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas are noted \nelsewhere.\nFor the forecast, strong SE winds are impacting the \nRevillagigedo Islands through Sun, on the far eastern periphery \nof Hurricane Karina. These winds will diminish through late \ntoday as the storm moves farther west. Associated rough to very \nrough seas will gradually subside from east to west across the \nislands through Sun night and early Mon. Fresh to strong \nnortherly gap winds and occasional rough seas will continue to \npulse in the Gulf of Tehuantepec through this morning. Fresh to \nstrong southerly winds are expected across the northern and \ncentral Gulf of California through Sun night into Mon. Looking \nahead, an area of disturbed weather, associated with a tropical \nwave, is located well to the south of southwestern Mexico. This \nsystem is expected to move west- northwestward to northwestward \nat 10 to 15 kt. Environmental conditions appear favorable for \ngradual development of this system, and a tropical depression is \nlikely to form in the next several of days. \n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, \nAND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...\nFresh to strong easterly gap winds persist in the Gulf of Papagayo\nand downwind to near 10N92W, with 6 to 9 ft seas. Gentle to moderate\nwinds and 4 to 6 ft seas are noted elsewhere. \nFor the forecast, fresh to strong NE to E gap winds will continue to\npulse in the Gulf of Papagayo area through the weekend into\nearly next week, then weakening slightly thereafter. Associated\nmoderate to fresh winds will extend well downwind to the outer\noffshore waters of El Salvador and Guatemala. Southerly winds\nmay freshen south of the monsoon trough this weekend into early\nnext week. Winds will be moderate or weaker elsewhere with\nmainly moderate seas. Convection will remain active near the\nmonsoon trough. \n...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...\nPlease see the Special Features section for more information\nabout Hurricane Karina, Tropical Storm Lowell, and an area of \ndisturbed weather with the potential of tropical cyclone \nformation.\nA trough, associated with the remnant low of Post-Tropical cyclone\nIselle, extends from 27N135W to 23N137W. Fresh to strong NE \nwinds and seas of 7 to 9 ft are occurring near the northern end \nof the trough axis and mainly N of 25N W of 130W. Elsewhere, \nmainly moderate or weaker winds dominate the remainder of the \nopen waters both north and south of the monsoon trough away from \nthe two tropical storms and the aforementioned trough. Rough seas\ngenerated by Karina cover the waters from 10N to 20N between \n110W and 125W. Seas are mainly moderate across the remainder of \nthe open waters.\nFor the forecast, Karina will move to 17.6N 122.5W this afternoon, 17.8N 124.3W\nMon morning, 17.9N 125.8W Mon afternoon, 18.3N 127.5W Tue morning,\n18.9N 129.3W Tue afternoon, and 19.4N 131.0W Wed morning. Karina\nwill change little in intensity as it moves to 20.3N 133.8W \nearly Thu. Tropical Storm Lowell will move to 13.0N 140.9W this \nafternoon, 13.0N 143.1W Mon morning, 13.1N 145.2W Mon afternoon, \nstrengthen to a hurricane near 13.3N 147.2W Tue morning, 13.4N \n149.1W Tue afternoon, and 13.5N 150.9W Wed morning. Lowell will \nchange little in intensity as it moves to 14.0N 154.0W early Thu.\n", "title": "Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1205897200023666691", "issued": "2026-08-30T10:05:00Z", "wmo": "AXPZ20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1205897200023666691"}