{"id": "1205890662545424387", "title": "Tropical Cyclone Discussion", "adv_date": "2026-08-30T09:00:00Z", "msg": "847\nWTPZ42 KNHC 300836\nTCDEP2\n \nTropical Storm Lowell Discussion Number  11\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP122026\n1100 PM HST Sat Aug 29 2026\n\nLowell remains a sheared tropical cyclone this evening. Moderate \neasterly vertical wind shear continues to displace the bulk of the \ndeep convection over and west of the low-level circulation center. \nWith little change in the satellite presentation, a blend of a \nscatterometer pass this evening, the latest objective intensity \nestimates, and the subjective Dvorak intensity estimate from TAFB \nsupports holding the initial intensity at 45 kt for this advisory.\n \nLowell is moving westward, or 270/9 kt. A low- to mid-level ridge \npositioned north of the cyclone should remain the primary steering \ninfluence during the next couple of days, resulting in a continued \ngenerally westward motion. The track guidance remains in relatively \ngood agreement during this period. Thereafter, considerable \ncross-track spread persists, likely due in part to the potential \ninfluence of Hurricane Karina to the northeast on Lowell's steering \nflow. The latest HCCA and Google DeepMind ensemble mean have changed \nlittle over the past several cycles and remain near the southern \nedge of the guidance envelope, while the GFS, regional hurricane \nmodels, and simple consensus (TVCN) continue to favor a gradual \nwest-northwestward to northwestward turn later in the forecast \nperiod. Given the considerable spread among these solutions, the \nlatest NHC track forecast continues to reflect a blend of the \nprevious forecast, HCCA, and Google DeepMind ensemble mean.\n \nModerate easterly vertical wind shear continues to affect Lowell and \nshould temper the rate of strengthening in the short term. The shear \nis forecast to decrease during the next day or so, which should \nallow the cyclone to become better organized. Gradual strengthening \nis forecast through about 36 h, followed by a faster rate of \nintensification through 72 h as environmental conditions become more \nfavorable. Although some mid-level dry air could limit the rate of \nintensification, all of the intensity guidance supports continued \nstrengthening, with Lowell forecast to become a hurricane in about \n48 h, with some additional strengthening thereafter. The intensity \nforecast becomes increasingly uncertain later in the period due to \nLowell's potential interaction with Karina. A slower and more \nnorthwestward track, as shown by the GFS and some of the regional \nhurricane models, would bring Lowell closer to Karina and could \nexpose the cyclone to stronger vertical wind shear associated with \nKarina's outflow, resulting in a weaker cyclone. Conversely, a \nfarther-south track would likely keep the two cyclones sufficiently \nseparated and allow Lowell to maintain its strength or continue \nstrengthening. The latest NHC intensity forecast remains near the \nmiddle of the guidance envelope and is close to the consensus \n(IVCN).\n \nLowell is forecast to reach the central Pacific basin in the next \nfew hours, and the next advisory will be issued by the Central \nPacific Hurricane Center at 1500 UTC/500 AM HST. Users will not need \nto change where they obtain information on Lowell, which will \ncontinue to be available on the web at hurricanes.gov.\n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  30/0900Z 13.2N 139.1W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 12H  30/1800Z 13.0N 140.9W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 24H  31/0600Z 13.0N 143.1W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 36H  31/1800Z 13.1N 145.2W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 48H  01/0600Z 13.3N 147.2W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 60H  01/1800Z 13.4N 149.1W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 72H  02/0600Z 13.5N 150.9W   90 KT 105 MPH\n 96H  03/0600Z 14.0N 154.0W   95 KT 110 MPH\n120H  04/0600Z 14.9N 157.6W   95 KT 110 MPH\n \n"}