{"msg": "977\nAXNT20 KNHC 300431\nTWDAT \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n0615 UTC Sun Aug 30 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America\nGulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South\nAmerica, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the\nEquator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite\nimagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through \n0400 UTC.\n...SPECIAL FEATURES...\nSignificant Rainfall: Clusters of showers and thunderstorm \ncontinue in association with the remnants of Tropical Storm Dolly,\nlocated along 59W-60W, moving westward around 20 kt. Satellite \nimagery tonight shows strong SW upper level wind shear continuing \nto impact this system, with the remnants of the low level center \nexposed to the west of most of the convection, and approaching the\nisland of Barbuda at this time. A well defined middle level \ncyclonic circulation is farther east along 57W, and has spawned an\narea of scattered to locally numerous moderate isolated strong \nconvection from 17N to 20.5N between 55.5W and 60W. Recent \nsatellite scatterometer data suggests that there are no signs that\nthe system is developing a closed circulation, but rather remains\na sharp trough. Redevelopment of this system is unlikely while it\nmoves westward to west-northwestward around 20 kt. The wave is \nexpected to bring locally heavy rains and gusty winds to portions \nof the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico and the \nadjacent waters over the next several days. Rainfall amounts and \nthe location of the highest totals will vary from island to \nisland, as local topography will enhance orographic lift and \nsupport the heaviest rainfall. Please refer to your local weather \nagency for specific rainfall forecasts for your local area. \nPlease, refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at \nwww.hurricanes.gov for more details.\n...TROPICAL WAVES...\nA tropical wave is along 36W-37W, south of 17N, moving westward \nat around 15 kt. Isolated clusters of moderate convection are\nwithin 90 nm of the wave axis. \nA tropical wave is along 59W-60W, south of 21N, moving westward \naround 20 kt. Fresh to strong winds and rough to very rough seas \nare noted from 15N to 23N between 54W and 64W. See the Special\nFeatures section above for more information on this wave.\nA tropical wave is along 73W and extends from Dominican Republic\nto eastern Colombia, moving westward near 20 kt. Scattered\nmoderate isolated strong convection is occurring behind the wave\nacross interior portions of Venezuela, while no significant\nconvection is noted over water.\nA tropical wave is over the western Caribbean, along 83W, south \nof 15N, moving westward at 5 kt. The wave appears to be\nreorganizing while interacting with the monsoon trough in this\narea. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted over\nportions of Central America and adjacent tropical eastern Pacific\nwaters from 04N to 10N between 78W and 85W.\n...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...\nThe monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of\nMauritania near 20N16W, and extends S-SW to near 10N24W. The ITCZ\ncontinues from 12N25W to 11N35W, then resumes from 08N40W to\n06N49W to 11.5N59W. In addition to the convection associated with\nthe tropical waves, scattered moderate convection is noted from\n05N to 13.5N between 18W and 34W. Scattered moderate to strong\nconvection is noted within 120 nm S and 180 nm N of the ITCZ\nbetween 40W and 55W.\n \n...GULF OF AMERICA...\nScattered moderate convection is occurring near a weak 1014 mb \nlow pressure center over the N central Gulf near 28.5N88W. \nScattered moderate convection is noted elsewhere dotting the\neastern Gulf waters E of 87W. A middle level trough and upper\nlevel diffluent pattern aloft supports this convective activity. \nA weak 1016 mb high is centered over the NW Gulf near 29N93W, and \ndominates the remainder of the basin. Under this pattern, gentle \nto locally moderate winds and slight to moderate seas prevail. \nModerate to locally fresh NE winds are occurring across the east\nand central Bay of Campeche, ahead of the typical thermal trough\nover the Yucatan Peninsula.\nFor the forecast, weak low pressure in the northern Gulf is\ngenerating scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms E of 90W.\nSome slow development of this low is possible during the next few\ndays as it drifts westward, although there is a low chance of \ntropical formation over the next seven days. Regardless of \ndevelopment, mariners over the northeast and north-central Gulf \nshould expect active thunderstorms with gusty winds and locally \nhigher seas into early next week. Elsewhere, a weak pressure \ngradient will support mainly light to gentle winds and slight seas\ninto into late next week. Winds will pulse to fresh with moderate\nseas off western Yucatan during the evenings due to a diurnal \nsurface trough moving west off the peninsula each night. \n...CARIBBEAN SEA...\nPlease refer to the Special Features section above for rainfall\ninformation associated with a strong tropical wave that will \ncross the northern Leeward Islands tonight and Sun. \nAtlantic high pressure continues a broad ridge along 35N extending\nwestward to near 70W. The pressure gradient between this ridge and\na 1007 mb Colombian low supports fresh to strong trades offshore \nColombia to 15N where seas are 6 to 8 ft. Moderate to fresh \neasterly winds and moderate seas are found elsewhere across the \nnorth- central and eastern Caribbean. Elsewhere, moderate or \nweaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail. Squalls and showers\nahead of the remnants of Dolly are moving across northern Leeward\nIslands and into the adjacent Caribbean waters.\nFor the forecast, a strong tropical wave will cross the northern\nLeeward Islands tonight, then Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico Sun\nand Sun night, and Hispaniola Mon. This wave will bring strong to\nlocally near gale force winds, rough seas, and thunderstorms with\nlocally heavy rainfall across the islands and adjacent waters. \nOtherwise, the pressure gradient between high pressure north of \nthe basin and lower pressure over South America will support \nstrong trades and rough seas over the south-central Caribbean this\nweekend. These winds will diminish slightly early next week as \nthe aforementioned tropical wave disrupts the pressure gradient. \n...ATLANTIC OCEAN...\nPlease refer to the Special Features section above for information\nabout the strong tropical wave, remnants of Dolly, that is \napproaching the Lesser Antilles. \nAbundant low level moisture continues to shift northwestward \nacross the Bahamas and waters to the E and NE, and is interacting \nwith a middle level trough extending from the eastern Gulf of \nAmerica northeastward into the Atlantic. Numerous showers and \nthunderstorms are occurring across the Bahamas N of 24N, between \n70W and 80W, producing areas of strong gusty winds. The Atlantic \nridge dominates the remainder of the Atlantic forecast waters, \nanchored on a 1026 mb high pressure located SW of the Azores near \n35N32W and extends a ridge westward along 35W to 70W. South of the\nridge, fresh to strong winds associated with the remnants of \nDolly prevail across the area S of 25N between 53W aND 67W. \nElsewhere across the tropical Atlantic, moderate to fresh trade \nwinds prevail S of 24N between 25W and 45W, while fresh NE winds \nare noted from 10N to 16N between 45W and 52W. Farther east, fresh\nto locally strong northerly winds and moderate to rough seas are \nevident N of 20N and E of 20N to the coast of W Africa, including \nthe Canary Islands. Elsewhere, the ridge generally supports \nmoderate to locally fresh winds easterly winds and moderate seas.\nFor the forecast west of 55W, a strong tropical wave will cross \nthe northern Leeward Islands tonight, then Virgin Islands and \nPuerto Rico Sun and Sun night, then Hispaniola on Mon. This wave \nwill bring strong to locally near gale force winds, rough seas, \nand scattered thunderstorms with locally heavy rainfall to these\nislands and nearby waters S of 23N. Elsewhere, abundant tropical \nmoisture and a deep- layer trough will aide in scattered \nthunderstorms W of 70W into early next week. To the east, the \nsubtropical ridge will dominate, supporting mainly moderate or \nweaker winds and moderate seas. Winds will pulse to locally strong\noff northern Hispaniola through Sun night.\n", "title": "Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1205842400810336259", "issued": "2026-08-30T06:15:00Z", "wmo": "AXNT20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1205842400810336259"}