{"msg": "608\nAXPZ20 KNHC 300340\nTWDEP \nTropical Weather Discussion\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n0405 UTC Sun Aug 30 2026\nTropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from\n03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and\nfrom the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following\ninformation is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,\nradar, and meteorological analysis.\nBased on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through\n0330 UTC.\n...SPECIAL FEATURES...\nTropical Storm Karina is centered near 17.0N 120.2W at 30/0300\nUTC, moving west-northwest at 14 kt. Estimated minimum central\npressure is 987 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 60 kt with\ngusts to 75 kt. Peak seas are around 31 ft (9.5 m). Numerous \nmoderate to isolated strong convection is noted within 150 nm of\nthe center. Karina is moving toward the west-northwest, followed\nby a more westerly motion over the next day or two. Karina is \njust below hurricane intensity. Strengthening is forecast during \nthe next several days. Karina is forecast to become a hurricane \nwithin the next day and could become a major hurricane early next\nweek. Swells generated by Karina will begin to affect portions \nof the coast of southwest Mexico and the Baja California \nPeninsula this weekend. These swells are likely to cause life- \nthreatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult \nproducts from your local weather office. \nTropical Storm Lowell is centered near 13.2N 138.1W at 30/0300\nUTC, moving west at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is\n1001 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55\nkt. Peak seas are currently around 13 ft (4 m). Numerous \nmoderate to scattered strong convection is within 150 nm W \nsemicircle. Lowell is moving toward the west-northwest. A \nwestward motion should resume during the next few hours and \ncontinue for the next several days. Gradual strengthening is \nexpected during the weekend, and Lowell could become a hurricane \nby Monday or Monday night.\nPlease read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National\nHurricane Center at website \n- https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest \nLowell NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at \nwww.hurricanes.gov for more details.\nWell Offshore of Southwestern Mexico:\nAn area of disturbed weather, associated with a tropical wave, is\nlocated well to the south of southwestern Mexico. This system is\nexpected to move west-northwestward to northwestward at 10 to 15\nmph. Environmental conditions appear favorable for gradual\ndevelopment of this system, and a tropical depression is likely\nto form in the next several of days. This system has a medium\nchance of tropical cyclone formation through 48 hours, and a high\nchance through 7 days. Refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather\nOutlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details.\n \n...TROPICAL WAVES...\nThe axis of a tropical wave is along 82W north of 05N, moving\nwest at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is active from\n05N to 07N between 80W and 87W.\nThe axis of a tropical wave is along 103W from 04N to 15N, \nmoving quickly westward at around 20 kt. Scattered moderate to \nisolated strong convection is from 10N to 13N between 100W AND \n105W. \n...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...\nThe monsoon trough extends from 07N78W to 09N85W to 08N90W to\n12N108W. No significant convection is observed other than what\nhas already been described near Karina, Lowell and the tropical \nwaves.\n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...\nPlease see the Special Features section for more information on \nTropical Storm Karina, and an area of disturbed weather with the\npotential of tropical cyclone formation.\nWhile the main impacts of Karina remain west of the Mexican \noffshore waters, strong to near gale force winds and rough to \nvery rough seas on the far northeast periphery of Karina are \nreaching the Revillagigedo Islands. Outer rainbands associated\nwith the cyclone's circulation are also moving across the \nislands. Fresh to strong N gap winds continue to blow across \nTehuantepec region and downwind to near 14N. Gentle to locally \nmoderate southerly winds and slight seas dominate the Gulf of \nCalifornia. Gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas are noted \nelsewhere.\nFor the forecast, Tropical Storm Karina is west of the Mexican\noffshore waters near 17.0N 120.2W at 8 PM PDT, and is moving \nwest- northwest at 14 kt. Strong SE winds are impacting the \nRevillagigedo Islands through Sun, on the far eastern periphery \nof T.S. Karina. These winds will diminish through late Sun as the\nstorm moves farther west. Associated rough to very rough seas\nwill gradually subside from east to west across the islands\nthrough Sun night and early Mon. Fresh to strong northerly gap \nwinds and occasional rough seas will continue to pulse in the \nGulf of Tehuantepec through early Sun. Fresh to strong southerly\nwinds are expected across the northern and central Gulf of \nCalifornia through Sun night into Mon. Looking ahead, an area of\ndisturbed weather, associated with a tropical wave, is located \nwell to the south of southwestern Mexico. This system is expected\nto move west- northwestward to northwestward at 10 to 15 kt. \nEnvironmental conditions appear favorable for gradual development\nof this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form in \nthe next several of days. \n...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, \nAND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...\nFresh to strong easterly gap winds persist in the Gulf of Papagayo\nand downwind to near 10N92W, with 6 to 9 ft seas. Gentle to moderate\nwinds and 4 to 6 ft seas are noted elsewhere. \nFor the forecast, fresh to strong NE to E gap winds will continue to\npulse in the Gulf of Papagayo area through the weekend into\nearly next week, then weakening slightly thereafter. Associated\nmoderate to fresh winds will extend well downwind to the outer\noffshore waters of El Salvador and Guatemala. Southerly winds\nmay freshen south of the monsoon trough this weekend into early\nnext week. Winds will be moderate or weaker elsewhere with\nmainly moderate seas. Convection will remain active near the\nmonsoon trough. \n...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...\nPlease see the Special Features section for more information\nabout Tropical Storm Karina, Tropical Storm Lowell, and an area \nof disturbed weather with the potential of tropical cyclone \nformation.\nA trough, associated with the remnant low of Post-Tropical cyclone\nIselle, extends from 26N135W to 22N136W. Fresh to strong NE \nwinds and seas of 7 to 9 ft are occurring near the northern end \nof the trough axis and mainly N of 25N W of 130W. Elsewhere, \nmainly moderate or weaker winds dominate the remainder of the \nopen waters both north and south of the monsoon trough away from \nthe two tropical storms and the aforementioned trough. Rough seas\ngenerated by Karina cover the waters from 09N to 20N between \n111W and 122W. Seas are mainly moderate across the remainder of \nthe open waters.\nFor the forecast, Tropical Storm Karina will strengthen to a hurricane near 17.3N 121.6W Sun\nmorning, move to 17.6N 123.3W Sun evening, 17.8N 125.0W Mon\nmorning, 18.0N 126.5W Mon evening, 18.7N 128.3W Tue morning, and\n19.3N 130.0W Tue evening. Karina will change little in intensity\nas it moves to 20.7N 132.6W late Wed. Tropical Storm Lowell will\nmove to 13.1N 139.9W Sun morning, 13.0N 142.1W Sun evening, \n13.0N 144.0W Mon morning, strengthen to a hurricane near 13.1N \n145.9W Mon evening, 13.2N 147.9W Tue morning, and 13.4N 149.7W \nTue evening. Lowell will change little in intensity as it moves \nto 13.6N 152.2W late Wed. Seas 8 ft or greater generated by \nKarina will cover a large area by Sun afternoon, particularly \nfrom 08N to 28N between 110W and 130W. \n", "title": "Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion", "id": "1205832378819444739", "issued": "2026-08-30T04:05:00Z", "wmo": "AXPZ20", "source": "NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center, received via the National Weather Wire Service", "page": "https://hurricane.terrapin.com/text/1205832378819444739"}